Hail in Texas, October 1, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

.UPDATE...
UPR LOW OVR PANHANDLES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVRNITE. STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR LOW IN NW OK SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA.
LLJ DEVELOPING WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SHWR/TSTMS OVERNITE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS FA. OVERALL...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEND
UPDATE SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 214 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005)

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONT TO TRACK EAST ACROSS E NM INTO W TX THIS AFTN. HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SOME ELEVATED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY AND EXPECT THIS
TO CONT... WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY BECOMING SFC BASED BY LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS CONT TO SHOW CONSISTENCY IN
DEVELOPING STORM COMPLEX ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING IT
NE OVERNIGHT. THINK MODELS ARE OVERDOING PRECIP AMOUNTS...BUT COULD
STILL SEE A SWATH OF 1 TO 1 1/2 FROM SW INTO C OK TONIGHT. LARGER
AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD PUSH INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF OK BY SAT
AFTN... BUT AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE MORE NE THAN E TOMORROW
ENOUGH FORCING WILL REMAIN IN AREA THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARD CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OK SAT AFTN. WILL KEEP
SOME LOWER POPS GOING INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

THINGS DRY OUT AND WARM UP FOR SECOND HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BY MID WEEK. LATEST RUNS SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN A FEW HOURS AND WILL
MAKE CHANGES BASED ON THIS SLOWER PROGRESSION. WILL KEEP SOME PRECIP
CHANCES INTO WED NIGHT WITH A NICE COOL DOWN BEGINNING ON WED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND CONT ON THU/FRI. TEMP FORECAST FOR WED COULD BE
ANOTHER DAY LIKE THIS LAST WED... WHEN WE SAW 100 DEGREE TEMPS ALONG
THE RED RIVER AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S IN THE NW... IF STRONG
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF SFC FRONT.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
736 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATIONS...
THE SEVERE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
35.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED INTENSE SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGER HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
TENNIS BALLS.

DISCUSSION...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR IS VERY STRONG...AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE REGION. STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED
TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY OCT 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING... MOVING MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AT 7 AM SATURDAY...OCTOBER 1ST.

11

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