High Wind in Texas, November 26 to 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A DRY PUNCH OF AIR WILL SQUEEZE IN OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS LEAVING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO BE
FUNNELED OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW
AMPLE SUN TO BE PRESENT  OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LENDING TO
AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN
QUITE MILD AS WELL WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FILTER BACK IN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM HELPING PROVIDE INSULATION FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT ALSO LOOK TO STAY UP WHICH WILL ALSO AID
WITH THE MILDER TEMPS.  FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF
GFS/MET/FWC MOS GUIDANCE LEANING HEAVILY ON THE ETA.  PUT /VERY/ LOW
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF LEA AND EDDY COUNTIES IN SE NEW
MEXICO FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY STRAY SHOWER THAT FORMS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE (THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY) WILL REMAIN LOW AS BEST INSTABILITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
SYSTEM MOVES IN CLOSER TO THE AREA.

AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR
AREA...THE HEIGHT GRADIENT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN
UP SUBSTANTIALLY CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CREATING AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IN ADDITION
TO THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT.  NAM-40 CROSS SECTION STILL INDICATING
IMPRESSIVE MOUNTAIN WAVE PATTERN IN THE MOUNTAINS (BOTH GUADALUPE
AND DAVIS) SETTING UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  FWC MOS SHOWING MOST
IMPRESSIVE WINDS SATURDAY WITH 47 KTS AT GDP BY 21Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS TIGHTEST
GRADIENT OF TROUGH BASE IS OVER THE AREA THEN. A HIGH WIND WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GUADALUPES AS CRITERIA LOOK CERTAIN TO
EXIST.  HAVE CONTINUED AND EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE MARFA PLATEAU...AS WELL AS THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  TRAVELERS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN AWARE OF THE WIND CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
AS COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES E INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING
140KT 3H JET WITH OVER 20 DAM 3H HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BE DIVING SEWD
THRU THE 4-CORNERS AREA WITH ASSOCD SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACRS SRN
PLAINS. MSL GRADIENT ALONE ISN/T PROGGED TO BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
ATTP AROUND 3MB/100NM...HOWEVER A LOOK AT NAM-40 SOUNDING ACRS PB
REVEALS WELL MIXED SFC-7H LAYER WITH MEAN LAYER WINDS AROUND 30KTS.
FARTHER W ACRS MTNS/UPPER TRANS PECOS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT. LOCAL HIGH WIND STUDY
INDICATES HIGH WINDS WILL BE ONGOING IN GDP MTNS AND INCREASING TO
WARNING CRITERIA SUN AM DAVIS MTNS. REGARDLESS...WITH 7H-5H WINDS OF
60-75KTS THE WIND WILL HOWL THROUGH THE MTNS AND ACRS ADJACENT
PLAINS. CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO HAVE THIS GENERALLY COVERED AND
HIGHLIGHTS (HIGH WIND WATCH) ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL CERTAINLY BE
CONTINUED. CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW HIGH TO GO WITH WINDS. MOS GUIDANCE
REFLECTS 25 TO 35 MPH ACRS PB AND 30 TO 40 MPH ACRS SE NM. CONCERNED
ESPECIALLY FOR UPPER TRANS PECOS/WRN PB WHERE NAM-40 CROSS SECTION
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR MTN WAVE SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN EWD
WITH WELL DEVELOPED AGEO ROTAR CIRC INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AS
SUCH WILL OPT TO INCLUDE WRN PB IN HIGH WIND WATCH. WILL OPT LET DAY
SHIFT DECIDED ON WHETHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PB.  OTHERWISE
WLY COMPONENT WILL DOMINATE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THUR WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO AREA. THUS LITTLE CHANCE FOR MSTR TO
RETURN AND DRY FCST CONTINUES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND MODERATE HAINES
INDICES WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND LOWEST RH/S WILL OCCUR ACRS THE SE NM PLAINS AND THE NW PB
TODAY. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MIN RHS WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 15 PCT
ACRS THE SE PLAINS LATE. HOWEVER DURATION CONCERNS WILL PRECLUDE
RFW HIGHLIGHTS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              75  49  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                75  50  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  75  51  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  54  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  46  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   75  50  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   68  40  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  47  67  30 /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  74  52  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    80  51  68  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM MST SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...
     AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 AM MST SUNDAY TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
     COUNTY...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ...AND SOUTHERN
     LEA COUNTY.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM MST SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SUNDAY TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER
     TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR... WARD...AND
     WINKLER.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
728 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271330-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
728 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 /628 AM MST SAT NOV 26 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS LASTING INTO THE NIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH 80 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.

AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1 AND 5
MILES EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD
KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AS AREA TRAVEL COULD
BE IMPACTED. THE PUBLIC SHOULD PREPARE TODAY FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH
WINDS SUNDAY.