Flash Flooding in Texas, May 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
745 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN NORTHEAST MEXICO HAS ALLOWED
MCS TO FORM FROM JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN WESTERN PARTS OF FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING.  DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NEARLY 5 INCHES OVER
WESTERN STARR COUNTY AND ANOTHER STORM PRODUCED NEARLY 2 INCHES AND
STREET FLOODING NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY. STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT TO
SW DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND DIMINISH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS
IN THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...FEW CHANGES
ARE PLANNED IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP.

.MARINE...WINDS ALONG THE LAGUNA AND BOY020 ARE MAINLY EASTERLY NEAR
10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

.AVIATION...DESPITE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS, VFR CONDITIUONS
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN S AND W OF AREA AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED PVA IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE STRONG OVER SOUTH TEXAS PROHIBITING ANY TROUGHING OR
FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH TEXAS.  A RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A PRECIP WATER OF
1.58 AND A K-INDEX OF 50. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND INCREASE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.MARINE...AT 1 PM BUOY 020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 8 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 10 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST REMAINING MODERATE. SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE BY THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE
REGIONAL AIRPORTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING REDUCING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  85  73  84  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          67  87  68  84  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            68  89  68  85  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              70  91  67  86  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      72  91  72  90  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  84  73  83  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...51
MARINE/AVIATION...54
MESO...VEGA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
707 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

TXZ248>257-151100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
707 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES.  TORRENTIAL RAIN MAY LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

51