Damaging Wind in Tennessee, May 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE
...AND EVEN MORE CONVECTION FIRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
NO WARNINGS ISSUED YET...CLEARLY WE HAVE THE NEED FOR HIGH POPS FOR
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 15/06Z.  WILL CONTINUE A BREAK DOWN OF
THE ZONE GROUPINGS TO FIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276 UNTIL 7PM
EDT.  KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY JUST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT DROPPED THE THUNDER THREAT LATE TONIGHT.

MINIMAL TIME TO LOOK OVER MODEL DATA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO UPDATES
AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.  BASICALLY ADJUSTED LATER GRIDS
TO STAY IN TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORS GRIDS AND THE LATEST MOS OUTPUT.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR TO
SHUNT TEMPS BACK TO ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WILL KEEP EARLY PART OF
FCST DRY AS MOSTLY DRY NW UPPER FLO EXISTS TUE WITH MUCH OF THE FA
DRY THRU WED. EXCEPTION BEING SW VA/SMALL PART OF NE TN AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM FRONTAL PUSH WITH SOME ENERGY DROPPING SE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPR TROF. NEXT MAJOR WAVE WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM PRESSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION
THU INTO FRI AND WILL KEEP THE MEDIUM CHC POPS GOING FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. WILL DRY OUT MOST OF THE REGION ON FRI BUT MODELS SHOW
SOME TRAILING S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SE ACROSS SW VA/NE TN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF UPR TROF TO KEEP CHC FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ALIVE IN THIS REGION.
HAD TO USE A SLGT CHC POP FOR SAT AS ANOTHER COLD UPR LOW FINDS A
HOME OVR THE ERN GREAT LAKES/NERN U.S. WITH VORTS ROTATING AROUND
THIS FEATURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  76  49  74 /  80  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  72  48  72 /  80  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       57  73  46  71 /  80  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  69  44  68 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC......NONE.
TN......NONE.
VA......NONE.

&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-151000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) SAT MAY 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY...
TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR TWO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

DMG