Damaging Wind in Texas, June 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK SEABREEZE
FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES ALSO POINT TOWARD POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITIES PEAK. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS. GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FOR
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND WARM TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. WARM SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND AREAWIDE
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. THE NORTH
NORTHEAST-SOUTH SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A LITTLE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR EITHER
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OR ACTIVITY FROM A POSSIBLE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW/
INVERTED TROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RIDGING...CAPPING AND A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A POP FREE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR JUNE 1-14...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT OUR THREE MAJOR OB SITES
(IAH...GLS AND CLL) ARE RUNNING AROUND 2.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
2005 YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTALS AT BOTH IAH AND CLL ARE RUNNING
AROUND 12 INCHES LESS THAN WE SAW IN 2004.  42
&&

.MARINE...
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE NW GULF. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING A BIT
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  47
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE MOST PART. WILL BE WATCHING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 45 LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG FOR POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEABREEZE COULD ALSO AID
IN DEVELOPMENT LATER. LIKE YDAY...CHANCES OF IT HAPPENING RIGHT OVER
A TERMINAL NOT VERY HIGH...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL AGAIN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO THROW OUT A DOWNBURST.  47
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  98  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  96  75  96  75 /  30  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  90  78  90  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TX...NONE.
.GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-161200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
324 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.