Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, June 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
302 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING AND LEVEL OF POPS FIRST 24
HOURS, AND AGAIN 36-48 HOURS OUT.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR ANY CONVECTION TO WORK WITH, SO
WENT WITH 50 POPS EARLY TONIGHT IN WEST, WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE, AND BRING 60 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH STRONG WINDS A SECONDARY
CONCERN. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG, NOR IS THE OVERALL
SHEAR PROFILE, THUS TORNADOES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT.  IN
CERTAIN PARTS OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST, HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY.  CHECKING THE 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM 15/12Z,
IT WOULD TAKE 3.0-3.3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS, AND DO
NOT EXPECT THAT MUCH RAIN, MORE LIKE 1.0 INCHES IN MOST HEAVY SPOTS.

-LATE ADDITION:  SPC JUST ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #484, THE
THE EXACT AREA I HAD SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES.

WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE JUST HOW MUCH OF AN MCS FORMS TONIGHT, AS
THERE WILL BE DIFFERENT FORCES COMING INTO PLAY.  ONE IS A SHORT WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN COLORADO AND DIVING ESE OVERNIGHT.  IT SHOULD
ENCOUNTER A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH FROM
OKLAHOMA.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.  THE LATEST RUC FROM 18Z
BREAKS OUT A LITTLE LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 21Z,
AND THE CURRENT RADAR LOOP WOULD INDICATE THE FOCUS REGION HAS
MOVED FARTHER EAST THAN PRATT/MEDICINE LODGE ALREADY BY 18Z.  THUS,
WILL NOT LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION THERE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANOTHER MCS IS LIKELY TO FORM THURSDAY EVENING, PERHAPS JUST A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN TONIGHTS.  IF SO, THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS AND HIGHER
POPS IF NEEDED.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE MCS FORMATION
REGION WILL BE NEAR OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT DDCS CWA.  WENT
WITH A BLANKET POP 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DID NOT CHANGE MINS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT, NOR MAXTS FOR
THURSDAY, AS THEY SEEMED ON TRACK.  DID STRUGGLE A BIT TO GET
SURROUNDING OFFICES TO COME DOWN ON MAXTS FOR FRIDAY, BUT MOST
CONCURRED.  IF THE MCS EXITS AS FORECAST, A FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH, LEAVING US IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW.  ALSO,
CLOUDS WILL EITHER LINGER OR RE-DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR, AND THUS
THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE LOW
TO MID 80S MAY NOT STILL BE COOL ENOUGH.

DAYS 3-7...

THE PRIMARY WORD FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE: RIDGE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN.  WE MAY GET ONE MORE NIGHT OF MCS
ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY THIS
WEEKEND, SO KEPT THE LOW POPS GOING THERE.  AFTER THAT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.  TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS
LOOK TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO WHAT WE HAD
GOING.  THINK THAT THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS START TO SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY THE
RIDGE.  THINK WE COULD START TO GET SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AGAIN
LATE IN THE 8-10 DAY PERIOD AS THE JET COMES BACK SOUTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  88  66  82 /  50   0  20  20
GCK  64  88  64  82 /  40  20  20  20
EHA  63  92  64  83 /  40  20  20  20
LBL  65  91  65  82 /  40  20  20  20
HYS  64  87  65  80 /  50   0  20  20
P28  67  90  67  83 /  60   0  20  20
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.
&&

12/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1050 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-161000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
1050 AM CDT (950 AM MDT) WED JUN 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF A LAKIN TO HUGOTON LINE, AND THEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WEST OF HAYS TO COLDWATER LINE.  THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS, WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
70 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST DEVELOP IN
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 3 PM CDT TODAY, AND THEN MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AFTER 5 PM CDT.  THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER 5 PM CDT WEST OF A LAKIN TO
HUGOTON LINE, AND THEN AFTER 8 PM WEST OF A HAYS TO COLDWATER LINE.

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089-160400-
CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-HASKELL-
HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-RUSH-SCOTT-
SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
319 PM CDT (219 PM MDT) WED JUN 15 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #484 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 11 PM CDT...

THE WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

CLARK...COMANCHE...EDWARDS...ELLIS...FINNEY...FORD...GRANT...GRAY...
HAMILTON...HASKELL...HODGEMAN...KEARNY...KIOWA...LANE...MEADE...
MORTON...NESS...PAWNEE...RUSH...SCOTT...SEWARD...STANTON...STEVENS...
AND TREGO.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

RITTERLING