Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TONIGHT ON INTO FRIDAY.

TONIGHT:
LOOKS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE SETTING UP FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN KANSAS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS AND THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH THAT AREA. SPC HAS
MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN MCS IN WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVE IT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND WILL USE THAT WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE STORMS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.

THURSDAY:
THE MCS SHOULD BE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING, THEN MOVE INTO
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY. KEPT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORMS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. MAIN REASON FOR
THIS IS THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY COME OFF THE MCS. WITH
THE AIR MASS REMAINING UNSTABLE, THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS, SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WINDS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE
RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT:
WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING UNSTABLE, WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN SEE THUNDERSTORMS FIRE OFF IN THE HIGH PLAINS THEN
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT-TIME
HOURS. RIGHT NOW AM KEEPING THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY, BUT
LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BUMP THIS UP AND CONSIDER FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY IF WE GET THE HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN FINALLY
COME TO AN END AS THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE. FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY,
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AIDE IN WARMING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND BY FRIDAY EVENING 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE +10-12 DEGREE RANGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A PRETTY GOOD CAP.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. H5 RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP AND EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, WILL SEE LEE
TROFFING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL GIVE GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS ALONG WITH THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEFINITELY HELP IN GETTING FIELDS DRIED OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  84  64  83 /  70  40  50  20
HUTCHINSON      65  84  64  83 /  70  40  50  20
NEWTON          65  83  62  82 /  70  40  40  20
ELDORADO        65  83  62  82 /  70  50  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  83  64  83 /  70  50  50  30
RUSSELL         64  85  63  82 /  60  30  30  10
GREAT BEND      65  85  64  82 /  70  30  40  20
SALINA          63  84  62  83 /  50  40  30  20
MCPHERSON       64  84  62  83 /  60  40  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     67  81  61  83 /  70  60  40  30
CHANUTE         65  81  61  83 /  60  60  40  20
IOLA            64  81  61  83 /  50  60  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

ELDER/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
423 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-161200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
423 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AND PROPAGATE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTEVENTUALLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT SINCE THE GROUND IS
STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT UNTIL THE COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KETCHAM/BOWMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

KSZ032-160045-
RUSSELL-
700 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 647 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES EAST OF WAKEENEY...OR 23
MILES WEST OF HAYS...AND MOVING EAST AROUND 30 MPH.

QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH WESTERN RUSSELL COUNTY BETWEEN 730 AND 8
PM.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS MONITORING THE BEHAVIOR OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSELY. PEOPLE IN RUSSELL COUNTY ARE URGED TO DO
LIKEWISE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR RUSSELL
COUNTY IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITIES. BE READY TO
SEEK SHELTER SHOULD A SUCH A WARNING BE ISSUED.

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
725 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

KSZ032>033-047>051-067>068-082>083-091>092-160800-
BARTON KS-ELLSWORTH KS-HARPER KS-HARVEY KS-KINGMAN KS-
LINCOLN KS-MCPHERSON KS-RENO KS-RICE KS-RUSSELL KS-
SALINE KS-SEDGWICK KS-SUMNER KS-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485
UNTIL 300 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN CENTRAL KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

BARTON                ELLSWORTH             LINCOLN
MCPHERSON             RICE                  RUSSELL
SALINE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

HARPER                HARVEY                KINGMAN
RENO                  SEDGWICK              SUMNER

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ANTHONY...DOWNTOWN WICHITA...ELLSWORTH...
GREAT BEND...HUTCHINSON...KINGMAN...LINCOLN...MCPHERSON...NEWTON...
RUSSELL...SALINA AND WELLINGTON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
740 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

KSZ032-160145-
RUSSELL-
740 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 736 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLAINVILLE...OR 23 MILES
NORTH OF HAYS...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST RUSSELL COUNTY. THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE THUNDERSTORM HAS DECREASED. THEREFORE, THE
CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST RUSSELL
COUNTY, ARE INCREASING.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN RUSSELL COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF
THE THUNDERSTORM MOVES INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
831 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

KSZ032-047-160200-
BARTON-RUSSELL-
831 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 830 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ELLIS TO BAZINE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

COX