Hail and Damaging Winds in Tennessee, August 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL
IOWA TO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM SAINT LOUIS TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS
OF HURRICANE KATRINA ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TONIGHT...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL CARRY A CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT AND
TAPERED OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
BY SATURDAY EVENING. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE UP ACROSS MICHIGAN.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK WINDS ALOFT /PRIMARILY BELOW 20 KTS/...WEAKENING
INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING /MLCAPES DROPPING DOWN
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG/ SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRIMARILY EXHIBIT PULSE THUNDERSTORM
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE DAY. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY WITH FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH HANDLING OF
HURRICANE KATRINA AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE
EFFECTS THAT THE MID SOUTH MAY EXPERIENCE NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS/UKMET
TAKE THE SYSTEM THROUGH NEW ORLEANS/GULFPORT WHILE EUROPEAN SOLUTION
IS CLOSER TOWARDS MOBILE/PENSACOLA. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE 12Z
GFS TAKES THE REMNANTS UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE THEN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE NAM
TAKES KATRINA FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. FOR NOW
THINK 00Z/12Z GFS AND 06Z EUROPEAN SOLUTION HAVE BETTER CONSENSUS
WITH TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA/PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SECTION OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATER SHIFTS WILL ADJUST
THE FORECAST AS THE MODEL RUNS SHOW BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK. STAY TUNED...
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-271100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
319 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO UNION CITY TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.