Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, August 26 to 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
343 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY POSE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR STORMS
BUT THINK BEST SHOT FOR RAIN WILL BE DRIVEN BY NW FLOW ALOFT. SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROVIDE A FEW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW MORNING...RANGING FROM DRY WITH THE
MESO ETA TO VERY WET WITH THE GFS. MODELS DO AGREE THAT UPPER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ENERGY. GFS BRINGS IN THE DEEPEST AND STRONGEST VORT MAX SO IT MAKES
SENSE THAT IT ALSO PRODUCES THE MOST PRECIP. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE
MESO ETA DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLES ON THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE PANHANDLES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING CONVECTION IS ALREADY
APPARENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. SO TRENDED POP AND QPF STRUCTURE
MORE WITH THE GFS TO BRING STORMS IN FROM NM AND COLORADO...AND TRACK
THE PRECIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH UNSTABLE AIR IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR MARGINAL TO WEAK SO NOT
THINKING THAT WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING SEVERE STORMS WILL BREAK
OUT. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HAILER...WITH THE BEST POSSIBLE
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE HIGHEST CAPE AND
SHEAR VALUES EXIST.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BY THE MODELS AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE STALLED OUT COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO PRODUCING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES.
THE SHORT WAVE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR STORMS TO GENERATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS
WEEKEND. POP STRUCTURE LOOKED GOOD WITH CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR
MOST AREAS SO LEFT EVERYTHING ALONE FOR NOW.

GRADUAL WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE FOR WEDS AFTERNOON.
DECIDED THAT MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON FRONT WITH
RECENT RUNS SO DECIDED TO DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREE WEDS AND THURS. IN
THE MEANTIME...WARMER AND DRIER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  88  63  84 /  20  30  30  30
BEAVER OK                  65  89  63  91 /  40  40  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              61  87  60  87 /  30  30  30  30
BORGER TX                  64  88  64  86 /  30  30  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              63  89  63  85 /  20  30  30  30
CANYON TX                  65  88  64  84 /  20  30  30  30
CLARENDON TX               68  89  65  85 /  30  30  30  30
DALHART TX                 62  87  60  86 /  30  30  30  30
GUYMON OK                  63  88  62  90 /  30  30  30  30
HEREFORD TX                65  88  63  84 /  20  30  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                66  90  65  90 /  40  40  30  20
PAMPA TX                   66  89  64  85 /  30  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                68  91  67  88 /  40  40  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              69  91  67  89 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

08/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-271100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS GENERALLY EAST OF A HOOKER TO CLARENDON
LINE. THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SETTLES OVER THE PANHANDLES...SERVING AS AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS AS MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

NUNEZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
425 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

TXZ008-262200-
HUTCHINSON TX-
425 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN HUTCHINSON COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRINGLE AT 425
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.