Hail in South Dakota, August 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTION CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CWA
TONIGHT...WITH A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
MANITOBA WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
SET TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR BRITTON TO GANN
VALLEY AT 20Z AND WAS PUSHING FAIRLY STEADILY EASTWARD. MAIN CONCERN
FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT CENTER ON THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CWA WAS UNDER SOLID CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY...BUT
SATELLITE NOW SHOWING AN AREA OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL STILL THERE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
12Z ETA RUN HAD A BIT LESS INSTABILITY FORECAST...WITH CAPES IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. CURRENT LAPS DATA SHOWING A BIT MORE THAN
THAT...ESPECIALLY IN THE CLEARING AREA. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF TRW
GOING IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...THOUGH FEEL THAT
LACK OF HEATING TIME MAY HINDER CHANCES FOR SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO NOSE OVER THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EXTENDED LOOKS ON TRACK...BUT LATEST GFS/ECMWF/DGEX SHOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE TAKING MORE OF A NORTHERLY TRACK.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED SOME OF THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE LIFT LOOKS TO STAY NORTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA AND CANADA...WITH THE MAIN JET TRACK STAYING JUST NORTH OF
THE CWA. LARGER TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY. AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE GETS SHOVED EAST
FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPERATURES
LOOKED GOOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN
LOOKS LIKE GET SOME WAA AHEAD OF THAT NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE BUMPED
UP MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINIMAL.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

PARKIN/ALBRECHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
553 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>036-045-261100-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
553 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 /453 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SDZ006-007-011-018-019-037-048-051-261100-
BROWN-MARSHALL-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-HAND-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
553 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE COMING THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING.

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-020>023-261100-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-ROBERTS-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
553 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE COMING THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1036 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     TSTM WND GST     13 ENE LANGFORD         45.67N 97.58W
08/19/2005  70 MPH           MARSHALL           SD   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES AND TREES DOWN

&&

GM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

MNZ039-046-SDZ007>008-011-018>023-260400-
BIG STONE-TRAVERSE-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-
MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK-
354 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
745 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN MINNESOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

BIG STONE... TRAVERSE...

IN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

CLARK... CODINGTON... DAY...
DEUEL... GRANT... HAMLIN...
MARSHALL... ROBERTS... SPINK...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BRITTON...CASTLEWOOD...CLARK...
CLEAR LAKE...MILBANK...ORTONVILLE...REDFIELD...SISSETON...
WATERTOWN...WEBSTER AND WHEATON.

PARKIN