Flash Flood in Missouri, August 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION / SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WAS PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS
EVENING.  STILL SHOWING SOME SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL TREND WAS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING EVENT.  ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.  PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT GROUND NEARLY
SATURATED WITH LOW FFG VALUES.  LARGE MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STRETCHING ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS MEXICO AND
INTO THE PACIFIC.  250 MB JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHEAST KS AND 30
TO 35 KT PROFILER WINDS AT 850 ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
CONTINUE TO FEED THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  00Z NAM PW VALUES SHOW
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT.  CONTINUED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WHICH SHOULD BE IN
GOOD SHAPE AS FAR AS LOCATION GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP.  HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD TO THE NORTH AND DOWNWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.

LINDENBERG
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOOKS LIKE MAIN MCS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE JLN AND SGF FORECAST POINTS.  THAT SAID...SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
COMPLEX MAY AFFECT THESE LOCATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT BOTH JLN AND SGF.  OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO.
.KS...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR BOURBON
COUNTY.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
846 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
846 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING.  IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FLOODING HAZARD...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DEPENDING
ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG/DSA