Damaging Wind in South Carolina, August 22, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITHIN THE HIGHEST LAPS CAPE AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF THE SWRN BLUE
RIDGE INTO THE UPSTATE/NE GA. ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY S/WV NOTED
IN THE LATEST WV LOOPS. STILL PLAN TO RUN A LOW CHANCE SOUTH TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH POP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHEARING S/WV
SAGS SE INTO THE CWFA COMBINED WITH MOISTENING OF DEEP LAYER RH
AND CONTINUED LIGHT SSELY LLVL FLOW.

MOS POPS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW LIKELIES FOR TUESDAY WITHIN
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA REGIME. PLAN ON CONTINUING TO
ORIENT POPS HIGHEST EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO STRONGER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET. HAVE NUDGED POPS IN THE WEST UP TO LIKELY
AS WELL WHERE BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON)...
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI TIMEFRAME...NAM/GFS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN SETTLING S AS
FRONTAL WAVE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. BOTH NAM/GFS
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE WITH WEDGE TYPE
SCENARIO DEVELOPING ON WED. SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ON WED ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS
SLOWER TO DRY COLUMN...BEYOND WED. PREFER FASTER NAM SOLUTION OF
PUSHING DRYER AIR OVER FA. THEREFORE...WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SKIES
WED NIGHT AND FORECAST GENERALLY THU INTO FRI. USED A BLEND OF
GFS/ETA MOS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THU...BUT DID TRIM BACK A
COUPLE DEGREES ON WED. WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT
IN MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS AND NEAR 80 TO LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

IN THE LONG TERM FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE NE AND THEN
FINALLY OFF THE COAST ON SAT. EXPECT THAT WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALONG THE E SIDE OF APPALACIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
EASTERN WIND COMPONENT LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD SO
WILL INCREASE POPS INTO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MOUNTAINS AT
THAT POINT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A TROPICAL SYSTEM VICINITY THE
BAHAMAS AND TRACK IT SLOWLY W. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE GULF...SO IT SHOULD BE A NON-PLAYER IN WEATHER
OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TO EXPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE THREAT AT ANY ONE SPECIFIC
TERMINAL THRU EARLY EVENING...BUT BEST CHANCES REMAIN AT
THE UPSTATE SITES...WITHIN THE BETTER RH AND INSTABILITY. STILL...
AT THIS JUNCTURE...BEST TO PLAY JUST VCTS UNTIL THREAT TIME CAN
BE REFINED. WITH WEAKENING S/WV ENERGY SAGGING INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH VICINITY SHOWER THREAT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...FOR ALL AREAS EXPECT KCLT WHERE ANY LIFT FROM S/WV
WILL BE FURTHEST AWAY. WILL PLAY PERSISTENCE FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG THREAT...LIMITING MVFR CHANCES AT JUST KAVL/KAND. DO
NOT WANT TO JUMP ALL OVER 12 UTC MAV WITH PRE-DAWN LIFR VSBY AT
KAVL. 12 UTC NAM WOULD NOT SUPPORT THIS AND EVEN THE GFS DOES NOT
LOOK THAT FAVORABLE FOR LOW VSBYS WITH DEEP MOISTENING FROM SFC-70H
AFTER 06Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-231000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
559 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY ALSO SEE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME
OF THE STORMS...AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ENOUGH RAIN TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-222015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
207 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...

AT 2 PM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE PRIMARY AREA OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...ALL THE WAY FROM CLAYTON
GEORGIA TO LENOIR NORTH CAROLINA. AN ISOLATED STORM WAS OVER
EASTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY...AND AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDLANDS WAS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE COMMON
WITH MANY STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...MEANING THAT
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. ALSO...SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF A STORM BECOMES
PARKED OVER AN URBAN AREA FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
SOURCE FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY WARNINGS.

JONES