Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, August 22, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS IS PRODUCING A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH 700MB ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT BEING
GENERATED TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO VARY ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER REMAINS MOSTLY INTACT BEFORE A WEAK
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT HINTED AT LATE IN THE WEEK OR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HAVE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE PAST MID WEEK.

HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND AREAS OF MORNING FOG TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND POPS AFTER MID WEEK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231145-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2005 /1145 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF LINE FROM YUMA
COLORADO TO GOVE KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA
THIS MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH COLORADO WILL CONTRIBUTE SOME INCREASE IN
WIND SHEAR...HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.
NONETHELESS...A FEW STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MERGE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY DURING THE WORK WEEK
AS MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL
ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF AND ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT DROPS INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND TRACKS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEST OF YUMA TO GOVE LINE.

LOCKHART/JDK