Damaging Wind in South Carolina, August 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO AMPLIFY OVER NE USA TONIGHT...WHILE RIDGE OVER
SE USA WEAKENS. HEAT ADVISORY IN WARM/HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM...WHEN PACKAGE WILL NEED UPDATING. WITH STRONG
LEE TROUGH OVER AREA...DIFFICULT TO KEEP TRACK OF PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ADVANCING S OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHIFT WIND FROM NNW TO NE
THIS EVENING. SCT CU FIELD MTS AND NC PIEMONT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. ANY
LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER AREA. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION NOT DEPICTED AND ANY LOW
LEVEL DRYING SLOW TO OCCUR. SOME FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
ALTHOUGH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED...LIGHT NATURE OF WIND AND NEARLY
CLEAR SKY WILL FAVOR FOG IN LOCATIONS WITH MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY NC MT VALLEYS.

UPPER HEIGHTS FALL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS DEEP VORTEX
TRANSLATES SLOWLY ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONTAL POSITION REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN TIER BY LATE MONDAY AND
THEN LARGELY STALL IT OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MORE NORTHERN OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. A WEDGE LIKE
CONFIGURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY PRODUCING COOLING TO
FINALL PUSH THE FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE MTN CHAIN. THE
SOLUTION WILL GENERALLY BE A MODEL BLEND...BUT LEANING MUCH MORE
HEAVILY ON THE GFS FOR TEMPERATURE AND POP FIELDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS THAT THE GFS IS OVERDONE
WITH STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...AND THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
TREND AWAY FROM THAT SOLUTION. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE PREFERRED.
EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT DRAPED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA COULD LEAD TO SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE CLOUDINESS...BUT
LESS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFERRED SOLUTION SHOULD KEEP
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY. RIDGING AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FRI THROUGH SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...FAVORED WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECT MTS...BUT TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION AT
KAVL. WINDS FROM N OR NW ON BACK SIDE OF LEE TROUGH. EXPECT
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE....LEAVING ANVIL CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS DEPICT PAIR OF WIND SHIFTS MID EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SECOND WIND SHIFT OCCURS AROUND TIME A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE...THOUGH LEE TROUGH MAKES ITS POSITION DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN. MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. BELIEVE GFS CHARACTERISTICALLY OVERDONE WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND MAY BE PREMATURE WITH UPGLIDE OVER ITS FARTHER SOUTH
BOUNDARY. EXPECT CONVECTIVE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE....LEAVING ANVIL
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARD DRIER NAM MON MORNING...KEEPING
LOW DECK SCATTERED IN HEATING AND MARGINAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ037-057-066>072-082 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG/JAT
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-221000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
550 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
THESE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
529 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             18 S GREENVILLE         34.58N 82.37W
08/21/2005  0.88 INCH        GREENVILLE         SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN WARE PLACE.

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALHALLA                34.77N 83.06W
08/21/2005                   OCONEE             SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREES DOWN IN WALHALLA.

&&

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOCCOA                  34.58N 83.32W
08/21/2005                   STEPHENS           GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON DOYLE STREET IN TOCCOA. TELEPHONE LINE DOWN
            ALSO.

&&

BURRUS