Lightning Strike in Nebraska, August 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1100 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPDATING FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS AS ACTIVITY IS WANING
AFTER DIURNAL HEATING HAS GONE.  ALSO TEMPS ARE STAYING UP A BIT
MORE IN THE SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS AGAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS UNDER UNSETTLED PATTERN. EARLY AFTERNOON
ANALYSIS REVEALED NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITH SURFACE HIGH BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE UPR MIDWEST.
ALOFT...UPR WAVE WAS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO...EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY UPR
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN PLENTIFUL CIRRUS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FCST AREA...HOLDING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS AFTN.
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BE FORCED SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE UPR MIDWEST.  AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS
EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG IT
(SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)...WITH ALREADY STRONG CU FIELD AND AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO NOTED AT 18Z. AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE
FORCED SOUTH TONIGHT...COULD SEE PRECIP LINGER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED GIVEN WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND H85 THROUGH 09Z OR SO.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIP CHANGE TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF NEBRASKA.
SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AS UPR WAVE BEGINS TO PULL EAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY CLIP KANSAS COUNTIES AND FEEL SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES ARE WARRANTED GIVEN SLOW BUT STEADY ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. GIVEN SLACK FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...ANY STORMS THAT FIRE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...WITH AN
OBVIOUS THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND...WOULD EXPECT TO AGAIN SEE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOP AND HAVE ADDED THIS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE SLIGHTLY DRIER PUSH OF AIR
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

UPR SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE ON MONDAY GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK
OF ANY UPSTREAM KICKER SYSTEM. WITH BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WAVER
ACROSS THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY BETTER UPR SUPPORT FROM APPROACHING
WAVE...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY AFTN. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE SLOWED THE UPR SYSTEM DOWN EVEN A BIT MORE...HOLDING THE WAVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE UPSTREAM LONGWAVE
TROF MOVES IT EAST.  SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE...COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THE
EXIT OF THE SYSTEM IS LOW ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DRY FCST FOR NOW.
PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION ON TUESDAY BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPR TROF. AT THE SAME TIME...LEE
TROF WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN LIKELY
EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF SFC TROF...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE OUT WEST LATE TUESDAY...
WITH THE REMNANTS ROLLING THROUGH THESE PARTS TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT GOING SMALL POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGIN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THE TRICK WILL BE TRYING TO TIME ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
HANDLE.  THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH AGREE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
ENTIRE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DROP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE TIMING OF THIS IS STILL NOT CERTAIN THOUGH IT
APPEARS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS PUSH IT ACROSS ON THURSDAY.  THE
FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY BEFORE WASHING
OUT WHICH COULD GIVE THE FAR SOUTH ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT THAT FAR OUT IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

HEINLEIN/LAWRENCE/KING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1102 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
221200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1102 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
DEADLY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KB