Flood in Puerto Rico, July 19, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST TUE JUL 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...NOT AN EASY FORECAST TODAY. FEATURES IN PLACE AS TO
PRODUCE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER LAST NIGHT BUT SHOWERS AS WELL AS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED WERE MINIMUM. THE 12Z SOUNDING MEASURED A
CONSIDERABLE MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOCAL AIRMASS WITH 2.05 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND VALUES OF K AND LI OF 32 AND -7.9
RESPECTIVELY. DEW POINT VALUES OF AROUND 78 DEGREES WERE ALSO
MEASURED LOCALLY.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A TUTT CENTERED SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...PRODUCING A NORTHWARD UPPER FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES.

SHOWERS NOTED UPSTREAM SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SOME
OTHER CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAND OF PUERTO RICO. AGAIN SEEMS THAT
THE LOCAL AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH AND MOIST AS TO ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER STEERING WINDS OF AROUND 25
KNOTS WERE NOTED AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY WITH
ALMOST SAME SPEED.

&&

.AVIATION...A SIGMET WAS ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO EASTWARD TO BEYOND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING RAPIDLY...THE
SHOWERS ARE SUFFICIENTLY HEAVY AS TO PRODUCE SOME URBAN FLOODING
ACROSS THE SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE WEATHER STATION AT THE LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...SO
FAR THIS MONTH HAVE RECEIVED 4.28 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH IS 2.01
INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE OF 2.27. YEAR TO DATE...FOR THE LMM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THE MEASURED RAINFALL IS 16.93 INCHES ABOVE
THE NORMAL VALUE OF 22.25. SINCE JANUARY FIRST 39.18 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE BEEN MEASURED AT THE LMM WFO STATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  50  50  30  30
STT  79  87  80  87 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.PR...NONE.
.VI...NONE.

&&

11

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