Flooding in Pennsylvania, January 15 to 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2005

.AVIATION...

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FROM KBFD TO
KJST AS MID LVL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUICKLY INCREASES.

STEADY LIGHT (TO AT TIMES MODERATE) SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST 10-13Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS/VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...AND LATER
IN THE DAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT NE LATE TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

VIS IMAGERY SHOWING MSUNNY SKIES OVER BULK OF FA THIS AFTN. LE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES CURRENTLY OVER THE NW MTNS SHOULD FALL APART THIS
EVENING AS BLYR FLOW WEAKENS. S/WV...CURRENTLY DIVING THRU NORTHERN
PLAINS...IS FCST BY SHORT RANGE MODELS TO INTENSIFY AS IT DIGS THRU
BASE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA SUNDAY AND SUN NITE. GREATEST LIFT/RH COINCIDENT W/MAX
SNOW GROWTH TEMPS...THUS EXPECT A SNOW:WATER RATIO GREATER THAN
10:1. LEANING TOWARDS A 2-4 ACCUMULATION OVR THE MTNS AND 1-3 EAST
OF MTNS. WILL USE POSSIBLE SNOWFALL WORDING IN ZONES FOR NOW...AND
ALLOW MID SHIFT TO ASSESS NEED OF A SNOW ADV. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY INTO MON NITE OVER THE NW
MTNS/LAURELS. MODEL POPS SEEM A BIT LOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOW MOIST BLYR EXTENDING TO BTWN 850-700H. SFC HI
BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION BY TUESDAY...SUPPLYING FAIR BUT COLD WX.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MED RANGE ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS A GENERALLY DRY NW FLOW PATTERN
THRU NEXT WKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL TEMPS. CLIPPER SYSTEMS
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TUES NITE/WED...THEN AGAIN BY FRI
OR SAT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...FITZGERALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
512 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2005

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-161011-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
512 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...WITH SOME
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING ADVISORY CRITERIA
SNOWFALL (IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE) BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED.

DEVOIR