Cold in Minnesota, January 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
PASSING SOUTH OF THE FA. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY
STREAMING ACROSS SE SD AND FAR SOUTHERN MN AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 1000-850MB LAYER RH FORECAST TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
STEADY WAA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS IN NEBRASKA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT VERY FAR INTO SD WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER. BELIEVE LOW
CEILINGS WILL TRAVERSE IA TONIGHT WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
COULD OCCUR. LEFT SOUTHERN MN DRY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE META 950MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 4 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY MORNING THAN THIS
MORNING. HENCE...SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE SE ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT PRETTY COLD
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND STRONG WARMING DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR
WESTERN MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER
TO LESS THAN 10 MBS ON THE 290K THETA SURFACE. THIS IS COUPLED WITH
RATHER STRONG FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS AT 700 MB. LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALSO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE MN
CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PROGRESSED THE CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI MONDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING IT TO AN END IN THE WESTERN
CWA. SOME CONCERN ATTM FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE
ETA DRIES OUT THE MID LEVELS WHILE LEAVING IT SATURATED DOWN LOW.
QUITE THE SHEAR PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ALONG WITH THE
PROPER TEMPERATURES FOR SUPER COOLED WATER DROPLETS. SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP OUT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LONGER TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LONG WAVE PATTERN THRU EXTENDED CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WRN CONUS
RIDGE AND AMPLIFYING ERN CONUS TROF. THIS LEAVES MN/WI IN FAST NWLY
FLO OUT OF RIDGE INTO TROF...WITH NUMEROUS MIGRATORY DISTURBANCES
ALONG A RATHER INTENSE LOW/MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS PACIFIC AIR
TRIES TO DISLODGE CURRENT ARCTIC AIRMASS. SIMILARITIES IN THE MDLS
ENDS THERE. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED ON
S/W TIMING...LOCATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND PUSH/PULL NATURE
WHICH COULD SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S...OR AS LOW AS THE TEENS.
THIS SPELLED OUT IN ENSEMBLE MOS MEMBERS WITH HUGE DEVIATIONS AND
SPAGHETTI PLOTS WHICH LOOK MUCH LIKE THEIR NAME. DID ADD SOME DETAIL
TO FCST IN BEST SNOW CHANCES WITH THE STRONGEST CLIPPER WHICH IS
FRIDAY. BEFORE THIS...THERE IS A CLIPPER TUE EVENING...AND WED
NIGHT...WHICH BRING SNOW CHANCES TO CWA. WITH PLENTY OF VERY WARM
AIR RESIDING OVER SD/NE...FUTURE SHIFTS WILL...ONCE AGAIN...NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. TRIED
TO KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS AWAY FROM THE EXTREMES OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. LOOKS LIKE A UNSETTLED...FAST MOVING WEATHER REGIME WITH
CHANGEABLE WEATHER EVERY 12 HOURS AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OSCILLATES.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

RAH/BINAU

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1207 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-161200-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
1207 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. WINDS
FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL YIELD WINDCHILLS FROM 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ZERO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
WINDS CONTINUING FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL YIELD WINDCHILLS FROM 20
BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO.

DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR THE BITTER COLD. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING...
CARRY EXTRA CLOTHING AND WINTER SURVIVAL GEAR IN THE EVENT YOU
DEVELOP CAR TROUBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRESS APPROPRIATELY
FOR THE COLD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

BINAU