Flood in Pennsylvania, December 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

WARMER AIR HAS BEEN SURGING NORTHWARD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY TO NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. AT PRESS TIME, THE
TEMPERATURE AT GED IS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES, AND 50 DEGREES HERE AT
PHI WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES UNFORTUNATELY, THE COLD AIR IS
BEING STUBBORN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN TEIR COUNTIES IN PA AND NJ, SO A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES IN
CARBON/MONROE/SUSSEX/WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES. WE ARE THEREFORE
KEEPING THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE, BUT HAVE DROPPED IT
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A SHARP BACK EDGE IS EVIDENT ON 88D IMAGERY THIS
MORNING, WITH A VERY DISTINCT DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL PA. SNOW BANDS
ARE EVIDENT IN WESTERN PA ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS DRY SLOT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
IN LATE THIS MORNING. WHILE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS CANT BE
RULED OUT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WONT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
BY THAT TIME TO MAKE SNOW A CONCERN IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE
PICKING UP A LITTLE TODAY AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH. FAIR WEATHER IS ON
TAP FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN MET.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE HIGH PLAIN STATES GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST
PROVIDING AN FAIRLY CALM WEEK WEATHER-WISE WITH NO BIG STORMS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD FROM SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH INTO DE/NJ/SE PA AND EASTERN MARYLAND. SATELLITE SHOWING A
DROP SLOT OVER APPALACHIANS THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS MORNING
VASTLY IMPROVING THE WEATHER. WITH THE SFC LOW NEARBY WINDS MAY DROP
OFF AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LOWERING CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING, BEFORE ONSET OF WESTERLIES. FREEZING LEVEL AT
3800 FT AT 1 PM TODAY DROPPING TO THE DECK TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS ALOFT (2,000FT) AT 60
KT FROM THE S.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW
TRACKS TO SANDY HOOK NJ BY DAYBREAK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND BY 1
PM. GRADIENT THIS MORNING IS WITH THE LOW AND THE RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. ONCE THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND STILL GUSTS TO 30 KT OR SO DURING THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND COVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 745 AND 815 ON THE OCEAN FRONT THIS MORNING WILL
YIELD MINOR AND POSSIBLY MODERATE LOCALLY. SPS IS OUT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PAZ054-055 UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NJZ001-007-008 UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ430-431-452>455 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ450-451 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIZOT
AVIATION...EBERWINE
MARINE...EBERWINE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-161000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
429 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SOUTH OF
PHILADELPHIA, INCLUDING THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE
CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE LONGER NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA, WHERE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE NORTHERN LOCATIONS TONIGHT,
WITH A QUARTER INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD END BY ABOUT
NOON ON FRIDAY. WHEN THIS OCCURS, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOW AND ICE REPORTS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.