Hail and Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, August 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
225 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU MONDAY)...
KIND OF A TOUGH FCST TDA WITH MODELS AGN HAVING DIFFS IN THE SHORT
TERM.  FIRST THOUGHT WAS TO FOLLOW THE NAM SOL OF A FASTER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT.  THINKING WAS THAT CONVECTION WOULD FIRE NXT FEW HRS OVER
SRN IN/ERN IL WHERE BEST DEWPOINT AND INSTABILITY IS OCCURING. WAS
THEN EXPECTING THIS PRECIP TO MOVE ENE ACRS FA AND WAS HOPING FRONT
WOULD SAG S ACRS AREA LATER TGNT IN WAKE OF THIS PRECIP. HOWEVER
CONSENSUS FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES IS TO FOLLOW SLOWER GFS WHICH
DVELPS A TRIPLE POINT OVR NW OH TGNT AND THUS HAS BEST PRECIP CHCS
THAT AREA.  THUS WL FOLLOW KIND OF A GENERIC COMPROMISE SOL THIS
FCST.  ALL AREAS WL CONT TO SEE LIKELY POPS TGNT AND SUN.  PRECIP WL
LIKELY BE FAIRLY SCT AT FIRST BUT DO EXPCT IT TO FILL IN SUM LATER
TGNT.  BNDRY SHOULD FINALLY MAKE IT S OF FA TMRW NGT.  COULD BE SUM
RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND FNT SUN EVE AND WL HANG ON TO CHC WORDG TMRW
EVE.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPR TO BE ALL THAT GREAT TDA AS 7H TEMPS
PROGGED TO BE ARND 9 DEG AT 18Z GIVING NOMINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.  LITTLE BIT MORE UNSTABLE FURTHER DOWN SOUNDINGS BUT HAVE TO
GET TO SRN 1/3 OF FA BEFORE CAPES GET TO 1000 J/KG.  THUS NOT REALLY
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SVR WX THIS AFT AND EVE.  BEST INSTABILTY
RIGHT NOW OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF AREA AND HAVE SEEN SUM NEW DEVLOPMENT
THIS AREA PAST FEW VOLUME SCANS.

DRY WX EXPCTED MON AND MON NIGHT AS SFC HI BLDS IN.  WL SEE DRIER
NELY FLOW FOR BEGINNING OF WORKWEEK AND DWPTS SHOULD FINALLY DROP
OFF.

GUID TEMPS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND WL BE
FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY TDA.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE THRU SAT)...
LOOKS LIKE RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LIKE TEMPS IN STORE FOR FA AS
PATTERN SET TO BECOME ZONAL DURG LONG TERM.  WESTERLIES WL ZET UP
JUST N OF AREAS SO PATTERN SOULD BE PROGRESSIVE.  ALTHO IT APPRS
THERE WL BE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE
RGN DURG PD...SFC HI RMNS ENTRENCHED OVER LERI THROUGH ERLY THU.
GIVEN NE TO ELY FLOW ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE THINK PRECIP WL BE HARD
TO COME BY AS FRONTAL BNDRY SHOULD RMN S OF THE AREA.  CHCS FOR
PRECIP WL INCR FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS LOW PRES WL DVLP OVER
THE LWR LAKES AND DRAG A CDFNT ACRS FA ON FRI.  HIGH PRES WL AGAIN
BLD OVER AREA FM THE NW NEXT SAT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS WL BE A DEG OR TWO ABV OR BLO FOR MOST OF
THE LONG RANGE PD.  WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WL BE FRI AS SWLY FLOW
AHD OF CDFNT COULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S.

ALL IN ALL CONFIDENCE FAIRLY GOOD TDA AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN TRENDING TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.  AS USUAL SUM SLIGHT
TIMING DIFFS EXIST BUT THESE WL BE RESOLVED AS TIME GOES ON.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
CDFNT ACROSS EXTREME NRN OH AND NW PA WILL SAG S. IT WILL PROBABLY
WAVER. SOME MODEL QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG S
OR A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT FOR LATER TONIGHT...GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE. IN THE SHORT TERM ONE AREA OF INSTABILITY IS OVER E CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA MOVING E AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THAT AREA THIS AFTN AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...MFD...CAK AND YNG THIS EVE. SATELLITE SHOWS A S/WV
IOWA TO OK WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WITH
THE MOISTURE SOME RAIN...MAINLY RAIN AS PER AMS BECOMING MORE STABLE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
459 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-140858-
ASHLAND OH-ASHTABULA INLAND OH-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE OH-CRAWFORD PA-
CRAWFORD OH-CUYAHOGA OH-ERIE OH-GEAUGA OH-HANCOCK OH-HOLMES OH-
HURON OH-KNOX OH-LAKE OH-LORAIN OH-LUCAS OH-MAHONING OH-MARION OH-
MEDINA OH-MORROW OH-NORTHERN ERIE PA-OTTAWA OH-PORTAGE OH-
RICHLAND OH-SANDUSKY OH-SENECA OH-SOUTHERN ERIE PA-STARK OH-
SUMMIT OH-TRUMBULL OH-WAYNE OH-WOOD OH-WYANDOT OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...ASHLAND...ASHTABULA...
BOWLING GREEN...BUCYRUS...CANTON...CHARDON...CLEVELAND...ELYRIA...
ERIE...FINDLAY...FOSTORIA...FREMONT...JEFFERSON...LORAIN...
MANSFIELD...MARION...MEADVILLE...MEDINA...MILLERSBURG...
MOUNT GILEAD...MOUNT VERNON...NORWALK...PAINESVILLE...PORT CLINTON...
RAVENNA...SANDUSKY...TIFFIN...TOLEDO...UPPER SANDUSKY...WARREN...
WOOSTER AND YOUNGSTOWN
459 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND ISOLATED STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY OR TONIGHT.