Flash Flooding and Hail in New Mexico, August 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
336 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE MID LEVEL SW FLOW ALOFT ACRS W TX AND REORGANIZATION OF LLJ
THIS MORNING HELPING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION ERN 1/3
CWFA AND POINTS E. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THRU 12Z BEFORE
DECREASING. FOCUS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE SW-NW CWFA WHERE THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS MAXIMA WILL BE ORIENTED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL SHRTWV TROF IS EVIDENT IN THE
GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN NAM/GFS WRT INCREASING 7H-5H OMEGA FIELDS. NAM40
DEPICTS A BROAD SFC TROF EXTENDING NEWD FROM SE NM (PROBABLY
REFLECTION OF MID LEVEL TROF) WITH PRIMARY COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
NEARING THE PANHANDLE REGION LATE PM. INCREASED SW MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL AGAIN FAVOR TSTMS TO SPREAD E-NE THIS PM. PW/S AS HIGH AS 1.75
WILL FAVOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PROGGED 0-6KM SHEAR HAS BEEN
ON THE WEAK SIDE (20KTS) LATELY BUT HAS BEEN ENUF FOR ISOLD SEVERE
STORMS AND AGAIN EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE LATER TODAY. AS LLJ
REFORMS EARLY TONIGHT EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE CHANCE TO
SUSTAIN EWD MOVING CONVECTION...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN
FARTHER N INVOF/BEHIND COLD FRONT. HAVE TREND POPS UP IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOS WHILE TRENDING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. PERIODIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN. BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM DEPICT A VERY MOIST 700-500 MB LAYER...ALONG WITH CONTINUED
HEALTHY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLOWLY EDGE SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
GETTING A BETTER PUSH SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ALONG IT. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT....FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY SUNDAY IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS
ARE ALSO A GOOD BET ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS THE
THETA-E RIDGE WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REGION
AND LIFT IS ENHANCED BY PASSING SHORTWAVES. MAIN CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...AS
ECHOES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN NORTHEAST OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.
WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE MORNING HWO ISSUANCE. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE OVERHEAD WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND THE THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS PRIMARILY REMAINING CONFINED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE BIG BEND REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              91  68  85  68 /  40  50  50  60
CARLSBAD NM                93  67  87  67 /  50  50  60  50
DRYDEN TX                  88  71  90  70 /  20  30  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           93  70  88  68 /  40  40  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          86  65  79  63 /  50  50  60  50
HOBBS NM                   93  68  85  66 /  50  50  60  50
MARFA TX                   81  60  81  59 /  50  30  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  69  86  68 /  40  50  50  50
ODESSA TX                  89  70  88  69 /  40  50  60  60
WINK TX                    97  71  93  70 /  40  50  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

49/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-132000-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
600 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 /500 AM MDT SAT AUG 13 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARFA TO COLORADO CITY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN RESULTING IN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...HOWEVER LOCAL DOWNBURST WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH...AND HAIL
NEAR THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND NICKELS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SLOW MOVING...AND
MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGER GROUPS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR
WEATHER FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING THREATEN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND