Hail in Oklahoma, October 1, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WILL SEND UPDATED ZONES PACKAGE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 FOR THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW PER 12Z GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA STILL IN THE FAVORABLE ZONE WHERE
STRONG LIFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED
MAX TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RAIN AND AMPLE CLOUD
COVER WILL HAMPER WARMING. SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST IS
REQUIRED THERE.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT BY 1415Z.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 23
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL
AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN AIDED BY A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING...AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE RETURNS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS RAIN. IF THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS
SUFFICIENTLY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. BY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED MORE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE UPPER SYSTEM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE EARLY
SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

OKZ049-073-011215-
PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
625 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     PITTSBURG AND PUSHMATAHA

AT 625 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ASHLAND TO 27 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KIOWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF PITTSBURG AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 715 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

OKZ074-075-011245-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
702 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL AND LATIMER

AT 702 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOWEN TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HIGGINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF HASKELL AND LATIMER COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS THROUGH 745 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

OKZ065-011445-
OKFUSKEE OK-
914 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 914 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTH OF PADEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY
AND MASON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.