Damaging Winds in Ohio, July 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...

HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE CONVECTION GET TONIGHT?  THAT IS THE QUESTION
IN THE HAZY AND HUMIDITY.  LEFT COUNTIES FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH
DRY. OF COURSE...ANY COOLING STORM ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WV THROUGH THIS EVENING WOULD BE TALL WITH A LOCALIZED
DOWNPOUR AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING.  WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE MOST MIN TEMPERATURE GUIANCE FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE TRI STATE AROUND HTS DIE
A SILENT DEATH AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ZONES.
THIS WAY...THE NEW HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE HEADLINED FOR SOME
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

WILL ISSUE A NEW HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SAME AREA
AS TODAY PLUS A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN OHIO.  WHILE H850 TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW (23C-24C)...DEWPOINTS MAY COME IN 2-3
DEGREES LOWER...WHICH WOULD HINDER HEAT INDICIES A BIT.  IF
OVERNIGHT SHIFT DETERMINES THAT DEWPOINTS COULD BE HIGHER...ADVISORY
AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

ISSUE FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THAT IS APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT
ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL LIE ALONG AND
BEHIND OF FRONT.  THINK ONLY SOUTHEAST OHIO STANDS MUCH CHANCE OF
SEEING SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 00Z WED.  AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO GET RID OF THEIR CAP.

ALLOW POPS TO BLEED INTO AREA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DECREASING AS IT DOES SO.
WEDNESDAY MAY FEATURE THE BEST COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWA
AND SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH BEHIND IT.  WENT WITH 50ISH POPS
HERE...LIKELY MAY BE MORE APPROPRIATE DOWN THE ROAD.

ALLOW POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS TILL THURSDAY...AS SUPPORT
IS SLOW TO LEAVE CWA.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

GENERALLY LIKED MAV TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND MEX LOOKED REASONABLE THEREAFTER.

RAN WITH HPC GRIDS FROM FRIDAY ON...LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY
PERIOD WITH A WELCOME RUN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 139 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005)

AVIATION...

STILL CONCERNED CONVECTION MAY FORM UPSTREAM OF PKB-CKB 18-20Z AND
MOVG ESE 19-23Z AND AFFECT PKB-CKB-EKN VICINITIES.

OTHERWISE MAINLY HAZE WITH VISBILITIES AROUND 5 MILES...LOWRING
INTO THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE 04-13Z.  THINKING TOO WARM FOR THICK
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1046 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

INCREASE IN 850 MOISTURE ON 12Z PIT SOUNDING IN 20 KNOT NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW THIS MORNING.  FIGURING 850 FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD WEST WITH
MIXING ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THRU THE CLDS IN
CKB-EKN-BKW.  IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS 75 TO
80...FM CNTRL IL TO IND TO NRN AND CNTRL OH.  DESPITE GUIDANCE BEING
LOWER...KEEPING OUR SLIGHT CHC FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN THIS
AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE ON THE HEAT ADVISORY.  HOTTEST SO FAR THIS SUMMER AT HTS
WAS 97 BACK IN JUNE.  NO RECORDS EXPECTED TODAY SINCE THE DUST BOWL
ERA IN 1934 HAD TEMPS OVER 100.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FOR WVZ005>007-013-014 FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM
TUESDAY.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FOR OHZ075-083>087 FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FOR KYZ101>103-105 FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...CL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

OHZ066-067-252000-
MORGAN-PERRY-
300 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 300 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14 MILES NORTH OF MILLERSBURG TO
COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
  EAGLEPORT...BRISTOL...THORNVILLE...SHAWNEE...RENDVILLE AND PERRY
  STATE FOREST.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH SOMERSET BY 3:15 PM...NEW LEXINGTON BY
3:30 PM...AND SHAWNEE BY 4 PM.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
404 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

WVZ031-032-040-252100-
BARBOUR-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
404 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER GRAFTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
  GALLOWAY...NESTORVILLE...MEADLAND...WEBSTER...KNOTTSVILLE AND
  THORNTON.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

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