Tornado and Hail in Michigan, July 25 to 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
845 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

.UPDATE...
AT 0030Z THE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY
MKG TO LAN AND DTW. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST
HEADS OUR WAY. THE KGRR 88D SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS JUST EAST OF BIG
RAPIDS AND ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD POP UP AT JUST ABOUT
ANY TIME JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FURTHERMORE... SFC BASED
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL AND NORTHERN IN. OUR THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUR GOING FCST HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION SO NO
EVENING UPDATE IS NECESSARY. I WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE
UNCHANGED AS WELL. I SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLOODING WOULD
BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. I ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO
BE PROGRESSIVE OVERNIGHT SUCH THAT IT WILL BE MORE OF AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM OR LOCALIZED QUICK HITTING FLASH FLOOD TYPE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LONGER DURATION FLOOD EVENT. SVR WX IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TOO WITH WIND / HAIL AS PRIMARY
THREATS. I THINK OUR MAIN SVR WX THREAT OVERNIGHT WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WIND DAMAGE WITH A BOW ECHO OR LEWP WHICH WOULD DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF
US DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS IN THE HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
OVER SW WI.

WE WILL UPDATE THE FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT LATER THIS EVENING BUT NO
REAL CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
100 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-261000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
100 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN INDIANA WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THIS FEATURE...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.  LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST.  THIS COULD
LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO COULD OCCUR AS WELL.  ALSO...LIGHTNING WILL BE FREQUENT.
THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON IS ALONG INTERSTATE 94.  THEN TONIGHT THE ENTIRE REGION
IS UNDER THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN.  THUNDERSTORM
MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.
OVERNIGHT...STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40
MPH...BUT THE STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EAST OF A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO MOUNT PLEASANT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG BEACHES FROM ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE AS WINDS AND
WAVES INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED. WAVES OF THIS HEIGHT WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT TO SMALL
CRAFT OUT ON LAKE MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

DUKE MJS