Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU LATE DAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF EASTWARD WOBBLING MID-LVL S/WV...CURRENTLY
SPINNING TOWARD NE GA. POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
JUST WITH ENUF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT...TO SUPPORT SOME
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL
THANKS TO LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
WEAKENING DEEP LAYER FORCING AND BLYR STABILIZATION THANKS TO
LOSS OF HEATING...CVRG EXPECTED TO WANE SLOWLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE UNDER MEAN
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER BETWEEN BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND UPPER LOW ALONG COAST. SOME DEGREE OF LLVL EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED ATMOSPHERE...SO COULD BE DIURNAL FOCUS
OF TSTMS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR PERHAPS EAST OF THE CWFA WHERE
BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP. AT ANY RATE...A SHOTGUN
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS FOR ALL AREAS WILL CONTINUE.

STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE CWFA THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE...BUT NAM/GFS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE OF E-W ORIENTED
INSTABILITY AXIS ACRS NC...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT/EVE STORMS
WILL BE PLACED IN THIS AREA. TRICKY FCST SETTING UP FOR THU
NITE/FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE LINGERS BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT APRCHS.
THIS BNDRY COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...PROBABLY
JUST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...AND HOW MUCH COOLER AIR
WORKS INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN NC BEHIND FRIDAY LEAVES MAXES
QUESTIONABLE AS WELL.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HAVE CLOSELY FOLLOWED HPC SCENARIO OF ECMWF THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY THAT WILL LAY DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL LIMIT
POP TO CHANCE AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...
PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT MOST TAF SITES TO EVENTUALLY HAVE A BRUSH WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY AT KAVL THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON AND
KCLT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL AMEND TAFS AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS
DICTATE. APART FROM CONVECTIVE STORMS...CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING LEAVING A GREAT
DEAL OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVERNIGHT. NEXT SET OF TAFS WILL MOST
LIKELY DEAL WITH FOG AT LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PRECIP. AFTER THE
FOG BURNS OFF...MAINLY CIRRUS WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW IN THE MORNING.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
714 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-111115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
714 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION...STORMS DEVELOPING TODAY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...
RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             3 S SPRUCE PINE         35.87N 82.07W
05/10/2005  0.88 INCH        MITCHELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CARTERS RIDGE AREA ALONG ROUTE 226

&&

SBURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             13 N CHARLOTTE          35.39N 80.83W
05/10/2005  0.75 INCH        MECKLENBURG        NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3/4 INCH HAIL FELL BRIEFLY NEAR EXIT 28 AT LAKE NORMAN.

&&

SBURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
604 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             10 N STATESVILLE        35.93N 80.89W
05/10/2005  0.75 INCH        IREDELL            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 3/4 INCH HAIL AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF JENNINGS AND SNOW CREEK ROADS.

&&

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             9 E LENOIR              35.91N 81.37W
05/10/2005  0.88 INCH        CALDWELL           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN THE LITTLE RIVER AREA ALONG
            HWY 90 EAST OF LENOIR. TREES ALSO DOWN ON POWER LINES.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 E LENOIR              35.91N 81.37W
05/10/2005                   CALDWELL           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPT DISPATCHED DUE TO TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES
            ALONG HWY 90 EAST OF LENOIR IN LITTLE RIVER AREA.

&&

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             4 S HICKORY             35.68N 81.33W
05/10/2005  0.88 INCH        CATAWBA            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE REPORTED BY BANDY/S CROSSROADS
            VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             4 S CATAWBA             35.68N 81.33W
05/10/2005  0.88 INCH        CATAWBA            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE REPORTED BY BANDY/S CROSSROADS
            VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

BURRUS