Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
448 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ADD PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AREA AS INDICATED BY
LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK 88D RADAR DATA. REST OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

XI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005/

SHORT TERM...
ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR CONVECTION. DRYLINE WAS LOCATED AT 3 PM
FROM DENVER CITY TO LEVELLAND TO PLAINVIEW TO EAST OF AMARILLO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS.
PLENTY OF CAPE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND WITH SHEAR INCREASING
FROM THE WEST...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG EAST OF THE DRYLINE. TORNADO THREAT IS GREATER OVER THE SE
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WITH LOWER LCLS...ESPECIALLY AS LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AFTER 00Z. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
EAST. RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN TOMORROW OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD.

LONG TERM...
LATEST MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
WYOMING/NORTHWEST COLORADO INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN BEGINS TO LIFT
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES EARLY FRIDAY
WHERE IT OPENS AND SHEARS OUT LEAVING A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE/FASTER THAN THE NAM...ECMWF AND UKMET.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A STRONG SOUTHERNLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DRY
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH OVER THE AREA AND WITH
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...SEE SPC SWODY2/3
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN PRIOR TO BRINGING THE FRONT
TOTALLY THROUGH THE FA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ON
MOVEMENT. STILL APPEARS WE COULD BE GOING INTO A WETTER PATTERN INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AREA.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

TXZ021>044-111630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO NEAR A
TULIA TO BROWNFIELD LINE BY 3 PM. EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THUS THE PROXIMITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO FORM WOULD LIKELY BEGIN TO ROTATE AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE THE STRENGTH
OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG OR NEAR
THE DRYLINE OR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 90S
WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION AND LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD
THE REGION WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

TXZ023>026-029>032-110300-
BRISCOE-CHILDRESS-COTTLE-FLOYD-HALE-HALL-MOTLEY-SWISHER-
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 241 UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY AND
COTTLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...
TULIA...SILVERTON...MEMPHIS...CHILDRESS...PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...
MATADOR AND PADUCAH.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND
OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

TXZ023>026-029>035-039>041-110300-
BRISCOE-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-FLOYD-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-
LYNN-MOTLEY-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
404 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 241 AND 242 UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY...
COTTLE...YOAKUM...TERRY...LUBBOCK...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY AND LYNN
COUNTIES.

THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...
TULIA...SILVERTON...MEMPHIS...CHILDRESS...PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...
MATADOR...PADUCAH...BROWNFIELD...LUBBOCK...TAHOKA...LEVELLAND AND
MORTON.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND
OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

TXZ039-102305-
YOAKUM-
546 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

AT 540 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR HOBBS NEW MEXICO. THIS STORM HAS
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL OR LARGER AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO YOAKUM COUNTY NEAR DENVER CITY AROUND 6 PM.
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE.

KW