Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU LATE DAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF EASTWARD WOBBLING MID-LVL S/WV...CURRENTLY
SPINNING TOWARD NE GA. POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
JUST WITH ENUF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT...TO SUPPORT SOME
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL
THANKS TO LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
WEAKENING DEEP LAYER FORCING AND BLYR STABILIZATION THANKS TO
LOSS OF HEATING...CVRG EXPECTED TO WANE SLOWLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE UNDER MEAN
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER BETWEEN BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND UPPER LOW ALONG COAST. SOME DEGREE OF LLVL EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED ATMOSPHERE...SO COULD BE DIURNAL FOCUS
OF TSTMS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR PERHAPS EAST OF THE CWFA WHERE
BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP. AT ANY RATE...A SHOTGUN
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS FOR ALL AREAS WILL CONTINUE.

STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE CWFA THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE...BUT NAM/GFS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE OF E-W ORIENTED
INSTABILITY AXIS ACRS NC...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT/EVE STORMS
WILL BE PLACED IN THIS AREA. TRICKY FCST SETTING UP FOR THU
NITE/FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE LINGERS BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT APRCHS.
THIS BNDRY COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...PROBABLY
JUST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...AND HOW MUCH COOLER AIR
WORKS INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN NC BEHIND FRIDAY LEAVES MAXES
QUESTIONABLE AS WELL.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HAVE CLOSELY FOLLOWED HPC SCENARIO OF ECMWF THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY THAT WILL LAY DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL LIMIT
POP TO CHANCE AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...
PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT MOST TAF SITES TO EVENTUALLY HAVE A BRUSH WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY AT KAVL THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON AND
KCLT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL AMEND TAFS AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS
DICTATE. APART FROM CONVECTIVE STORMS...CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING LEAVING A GREAT
DEAL OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVERNIGHT. NEXT SET OF TAFS WILL MOST
LIKELY DEAL WITH FOG AT LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PRECIP. AFTER THE
FOG BURNS OFF...MAINLY CIRRUS WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW IN THE MORNING.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
714 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-111115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
714 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION...STORMS DEVELOPING TODAY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...
RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHERRYVILLE             35.38N 81.38W
05/10/2005                   GASTON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON ACADEMY STREET.

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             10 S GREENVILLE         34.69N 82.37W
05/10/2005  1.50 INCH        GREENVILLE         SC   OTHER FEDERAL

            HAIL JUST LESS THAN GOLF BALL SIZE WAS REPORTED AT THE
            DONALDSON CENTER AIRPORT BY THE FAA.

&&

TJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082-SCZ002-003-005>014-019-102300-
ABBEVILLE-ALEXANDER-ANDERSON-BURKE NC-CABARRUS-CALDWELL-CATAWBA-
CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-GASTON-GREATER GREENVILLE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-IREDELL-LAURENS SC-
LINCOLN NC-MCDOWELL-MECKLENBURG-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK NC-ROWAN-
RUTHERFORD-SPARTANBURG-UNION NC-UNION SC-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...CHARLOTTE...
CHESTER...CONCORD...GAFFNEY...GASTONIA...GREENVILLE...GREENWOOD...
HICKORY...LAURENS...LINCOLNTON...MARION...MOCKSVILLE...MONROE...
MORGANTON...ROCK HILL...RUTHERFORDTON...SALISBURY...SHELBY...
SPARTANBURG...STATESVILLE...TRYON...UNION
434 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 7 PM. THESE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...CONTAINING HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE
GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG METRO AREA...NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH TO ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD. A SECOND
AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD AFFECT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...FROM
GASTONIA AND LINCOLNTON TO CHARLOTTE...MONROE AND CONCORD. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD POSSIBLY DRIFT NORTH TO HICKORY AND MOORESVILLE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THESE STORMS AND COULD ISSUE WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             2 E HONEA PATH          34.45N 82.36W
05/10/2005  0.75 INCH        ABBEVILLE          SC   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CHORNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             VALE                    35.54N 81.40W
05/10/2005  0.75 INCH        LINCOLN            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CHORNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             LOWELL                  35.27N 81.10W
05/10/2005  0.75 INCH        GASTON             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME-SIZED HAIL AT INTERSTATE 85 EXIT NUMBER 23 NEAR
            LOWELL.

&&

CHORNE