Flash Flood in North Carolina, June 9, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
214 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN ALONG SE USA COAST...WITH TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER GULF STATES. MOISTURE ON W SIDE OF RIDGE TO REMAIN
BANKED UP AGAINST S APPALACHIANS IN WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT THROUGH
FRI EVENING...SUPPORTING POPS RANGING FROM CHANCE E AND TN
LINE...TO LIKELY ALONG BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. ON SAT MODELS TRY TO
BRING DRIER AIR INTO AREA FROM ATLANTIC. GFS SHOWING SWATH OF HIGH
RH WELL E OF TC ARLENE...WHILE ETA...THROUGH FARTHER E WITH
ARLENE...IS LESS AGREESIVE WITH MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...PREFER
DRIER ETA SCENARIO AS ITS TRACK IS CLOSER TO TPC TRACK...THOUGH
FASTER. ALSO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO CONVECTION
BETWEEN MOIST INFLOW E SIDE OF ARLENE AND DRIER ATLANTIC AIR. WILL
LIMIT CHANCE POPS SAT TO MTS AND UPPER SAVANAH RIVER VALLEY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH MOISTURE SPREADING N AND E INTO
AREA SUN AS DRIER ATLANTIC AIR RETREATS...AND HAVE COMPROMISED
WITH CHANCE POPS SUN...AGAIN FAVORING BLUE RIDGE IN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT.

MAX TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED IN CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT
IN DRIER AIR ON SAT WHERE FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. MINIMUM TMEPERATURES TO REAMIN UP IN MOIST AIR MASS.
WIND GENERALLY FROM SE EARLY...SLOWLY VEERING TO S. LIMITED GUSTS
TO LATE SAT AND SUN WHEN GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN RIDGE AND ARLENE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE FCST LITTLE CHANGED FROM GOING FCST. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ON WED WHICH CARVE A TROF OVER THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY. SLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
WED WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES IN. CHC...MAINLY DIURNAL...POP CONTINUES
THRU THEN. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THU...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE MTNS FOR CHC POP. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPS...BUT VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO PREV FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS WE MOVE THROUGH ANOTHER DAY OF WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN
PLACE...FCST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREV FEW. COULD BE SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS THE NEXT TWO HOURS...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL...XCPT WHERE
TSRA MOVE OVER TAF SITES. AS IN PAST DAYS...VCTS ALL SITES THRU THE
EVENING AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ABOUT MIDNIGHT...MVFR VSBY/CIGS
RETURN. HAVE TEMPO FOR IFR VSBY/CIGS MOST LOCATIONS IN LINE WITH
THIS MORNINGS OBS. VFR VSBY BY 15Z...BUT MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPGLIDE CONTINUE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-101000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
545 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL CAUSE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
PEOPLE IN FLOOD PRONE AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WATER LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND AT NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXISTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE REQUESTED IF FLOODING DEVELOPS.

LGL