Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, June 9, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
135 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2005

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS. WHILE BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT. ETA WAS A BIT TO
WARM AT H500 ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT H850...BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZED THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT  RATHER POORLY. ALSO AT
H850 MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WERE REALLY UNDERDOING THE MOISTURE
ON THE 12Z DDC SOUNDING WITH THE ETA SLIGHTLY BETTER. PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN IS SVR WX/HEAVY RAIN THREAT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
SERIES OF WAVES SLIDES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

TONIGHT...AM EXPECTING BOTH WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GET ITSELF
ORGANIZED BY 00Z. PLENTY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES AND
WITH SHORT WAVE JUST ENTERING THE AREA SEE NO REASON WHY BOTH
BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BECOME ACTIVE. SHEAR/INSTABILTY ALL POINT TO
RATHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS EVENING AND AT THIS
TIME SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE WITH THAT. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CWA. LOW LEVEL JET REALLY GETS CRANKED UP AFTER 00Z BEFORE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND JET IMPINGING ON
IT...WOULD EXPECT NUMEROUS CELLS TO FIRE ALONG IT THEN TRACK NORTH.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THIS AREA AS 3 HOUR FFG IS PRETTY
LOW. MAY SEE SOME LOW END WIND ADVISORY WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
AS LOW DEEPENS AND AGAIN BEHIND COLD FRONT AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES
COINCIDE WITH STRONG CAA. THINK IT MIGHT BE A TOO SHORT OF WINDOW TO
HIT CRITERIA...BUT WILL UP WINDS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...DUE TO BUSY FIRST PERIOD WEATHER...WILL KEEP REST OF
DISCUSSION BRIEF. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE HYDRO PROBLEMS AS WAVE AFTER WAVE
CONTINUES TO EJECT AHEAD OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN TROUGH. ALL IN ALL DIDNT
MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HERE...EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS
A BIT ON FRIDAY CLOSER TILL THE EVENING WHEN BEST DYNAMICS APPROACH.
AGAIN HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL BE BIG CONCERN AS AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SHOT AT SEEING MORE THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY
ALSO LOOKS TO SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ETA/GFS REALLY DIVERGE WITH TIMING HERE WITH
THE GFS LOOKING LIKE ITS MOVING SUCH A STRONG WAVE A BIT TOO FAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK. WHILE ALL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR
A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK...DETAILS VERY
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT. PRIMARY WORRY IS THE SPEED OF WHICH THIS WAVE
WILL LIFT OUT. GFS THE FASTEST WITH WAVE WHILE ECMWF IS BY FAR THE
SLOWEST WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETWEEN. ENSEMBLES ALSO
BEGINNING TO SHOW ABOUT 5 MEMBERS THAT LOOK A LOT LIKE THE ECMWF.
WITH THIS IN MIND WENT WITH A 06Z DGEX/GFS COMPROMISE WHICH SLOWS
WAVE DOWN QUITE A BIT. MAJOR IMPACT OF THIS CHANGE IS TO HOLD ON TO
POPS A BIT LONGER INTO MONDAY MORNING THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. DIDNT
MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO OTHER PARAMETERS...EXCEPT TO BUMP UP HIGHS
A BIT ON WED-THURS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 08Z FOR NORTON-DECATUR-RAWLINS.
.NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL 08Z FOR RED WILLOW AND HITCHCOCK.
.CO...NONE.

&&

JRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MDT THU JUN 9 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1038 AM MDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY...

CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD CONTAIN VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70
MPH...AND TORNADOES. THERE ARE THREE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN. ONE AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE
INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM NEAR SAINT FRANCIS KANSAS TO
MCCOOK NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG A DRYLINE FROM GOODLAND TO LEOTI. ALL STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST AND NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA STATE LINE....AND ALSO WITH ANY
ISOLATED CELLS THAT FORM ON THE DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM...BUT THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27 DURING THE EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE TRADITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SIMILAR TO
TODAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS...BUT
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE LOW.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) TODAY.

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1203 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-092000-
CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-DECATUR-DUNDY-GOVE-GRAHAM-GREELEY-HITCHCOCK-
KIT CARSON-LOGAN-NORTON-RAWLINS-RED WILLOW-SHERIDAN-SHERMAN-THOMAS-
WALLACE-WICHITA-YUMA-
1203 PM MDT (103 PM CDT) THU JUN 9 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA HAS ALREADY BECOME UNSTABLE. AT NOON MDT
(1 PM CDT) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM HILL CITY TO
ELKHART. MEANWHILE...A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM LIMON TO LAMAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A NUMBER OF OTHER BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT)...
AND THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN
THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND ALSO OVER AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF A COLBY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE WHERE WIND SHEAR
IS INCREASING.

NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES. IF SEVERE
WEATHER IS OBSERVED...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED...TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTIONS.

MENTZER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
113 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2005

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-100400-
CHEYENNE KS-DECATUR-DUNDY-GOVE-GRAHAM-GREELEY-HITCHCOCK-LOGAN-NORTON-
RAWLINS-RED WILLOW-SHERIDAN-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-WICHITA-
113 PM MDT (213 PM CDT) THU JUN 9 2005

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 442 FOR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
(1100 PM CDT).

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH...
IN KANSAS...CHEYENNE...DECATUR...GOVE...GRAHAM...GREELEY...LOGAN...
NORTON...RAWLINS...SHERIDAN...SHERMAN...THOMAS...WALLACE AND WICHITA.

IN NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON
THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DLF

..TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 442 IN
EFFECT UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA HAS ALREADY BECOME UNSTABLE. AT NOON MDT
(1 PM CDT) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM HILL CITY TO
ELKHART. MEANWHILE...A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM LIMON TO LAMAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A NUMBER OF OTHER BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT)...
AND THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN
THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND ALSO OVER AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF A COLBY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE WHERE WIND SHEAR
IS INCREASING.

NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES. IF SEVERE
WEATHER IS OBSERVED...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED...TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTIONS.

MENTZER