Flood in North Carolina, June 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MDLS INDICATE AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRATIFORM PRECIP HAS JUST
OCCURRED OVER THE CWFA WITH AXIS SHIFTING NORTH OF OUR AREA AND
HOLDING NEARLY STEADY MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING
WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE SHOWERY...AND IN FACT SOME THUNDER JUST TO
OUR WEST...ATTM. EXPECT CATEGORICAL SHOWERS SOUTH/RAIN NORTH THIS
MORNING TAPERING OFF TO LIKELY XCPT FOR NRN FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP CAT POP HERE SINCE THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE LIFT AXIS.

EVEN WITH DAMMING CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...INSTABILITY
INCREASES NEAR THE EDGES OF THE COLD DOME. UPPER LOW ONLY MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST KEEPING BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING THIS WAY CREATING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THIS FEATURE MOVING IN...WILL ADD THUNDER TO MTNS AND
SRN CWFA. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. THIS HAS BEEN
SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY OVER A 24 HR PERIOD. NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CONVECTION
OCCURRING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IF THE
CONVECTION DUMPS A LOT OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO
ADDRESS THIS ISSUE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD TONIGHT. GFS APPEARS
TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS A MUCH
STRONGER SHORT WAVE/UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW.
NAM MORE REASONABLE WITH WEAKER...BUT SIMILAR FEATURES. IT AGREES
WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE TMB. SO WITH MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...INCREASED POP TO LIKELY. HAVE
INCLUDED WIDESPREAD FOG AS WEDGE BEGINS TO MIX OUT LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI SINCE IT IS A COMMON FEATURE WITH THESE EVENTS.

TRICKY FCST FRI WITH MDLS SUGGESTING WEDGE MIXING OUT ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS AND MTNS...BUT LINGERING OVER THE NRN TIER. ATMOS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...EVEN IF WEDGE MIXING SLOWER.
WITH UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...WILL
GO WITH LOW LIKELY POP.

ATMOS DRIES OUT FRI NITE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVE BACK IN SATURDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN
TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE CHC AFT TSRA FOR THE NC MTNS.

WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY. WILL HAVE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWFA FRIDAY WITH WEDGE ERODING. NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS SATURDAY. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MINOR MODIFICATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT TO TRANSITION FROM NEW TO PREV
FCST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES THESE PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...
STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING NORTH ALONG WITH THE BAND OF BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT THIS MORNING. SHRA AND TS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL GA ATTM
AHEAD OF SHARP H5 TROF. A REMNANT FORM OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
NEAR KAND AROUND 8Z...WILL CODE AS SHRA. CAD SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF LIFR TO IFR EAST OF THE
MTNS. BASICALLY...WILL ADVERTISE PERIODS OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITH A TEMPO OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET...LLVL MOISTURE
SHOULD RECOVER AND WILL TEMPO A PERIOD OF VLIFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE
THIS EVENING EAST OF THE MTNS. KAVL WILL REMAIN THE MOST VARIABLE
THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON OBS TRENDS...EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF THE
TIME KAVL CEILING WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-031000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
559 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING. SEE
CAESPSGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-021600-
ABBEVILLE-ALEXANDER-ANDERSON-AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE NC-CABARRUS-
CALDWELL-CATAWBA-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-ELBERT-
FRANKLIN GA-GASTON-GRAHAM-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-HABERSHAM-HART-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-IREDELL-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL-MECKLENBURG-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK NC-RABUN-ROWAN-RUTHERFORD-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-SWAIN-TRANSYLVANIA-UNION NC-
UNION SC-YANCEY-YORK-
515 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2005

...ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL...ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN TUESDAY NIGHT...REPORTS
INDICATE THAT 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF INTO NEARBY CREEKS AND STREAMS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS INTENSE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS
OR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.