Dense Fog in Kansas, June 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
307 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE AGAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEARLY
ALL PERIODS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...
PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA AND CLOUDS BEGNG TO THIN AS UPR TROF
NOTED ON WIND PROFILERS, SATL AND 88D CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST.
STABLE AIRMASS IN WAKE OF TROF SHUD PRECLUDE ANY ADDTLN PRCIP
TONIGHT FOR CWA. AT THE SFC A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
INTO ERN KS AT MID AFTN, BUT IS PROGD TO MOVE EWD DURING THE NIGHT.
RETURN SERLY FLO WILL INCREASE AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA. WITH
DEW PTS REMAINING RATHER HIGH, MIN TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO FALL PAST 60
MOST AREAS. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTR AND WK SERLY FLO, FOG MAY AGAIN
FORM LATE TONIGHT, BUT ATTM UNSURE OF EXTENT OR AMOUNT. MAY ADD TO
ZFP BEFORE ISSUANCE. WARM ADVECTN ELEVATED TSTMS COULD SPARK UP OVR
CENTRL KS TOWARD MORNG, BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL REMAIN OUT OF CWA.

AFTER TONIGHT...
INCREASING FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS IN
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT MAY PROVIDE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES
SO WILL GO WITH SOME SMALL POPS...BUT WILL NOT LIMIT TO AFTERNOON
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UPSTREAM TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40 TO 50KTS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ALONG WITH
LOTS OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WNW CORFIDI VECTORS...MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE
CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS BUT NOT TO CATEGORICAL YET.

FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THEREAFTER. MCS REMNANTS MAY
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND IMPACT
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. MODELS BRING UPPER LOW NOW OFF BAJA COAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT DIFFER ON SPEED AND STRENGTH. GFS SEEMS TO
BE THE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND ALSO SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NAM
SUGGESTS WAVE MAY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. MCS MAY ALSO LEAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARBY. ALL
SAID...WILL NEED SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AND WENT WITH
BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH AT THIS RANGE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR SO SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. HAVE SHADED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH MORNING MCS
CONCERNS.

NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW TO ROTATE EAST AS SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE ALSO
MOVES BY FOR SATURDAY. THIS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION...SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE FRONT INTO KANSAS. GFS SUGGESTS FAIRLY HEALTHY CAP IN PLACE
AND UPPER FORCING IS LACKING...BUT BOUNDARY NEARBY SUGGESTS KEEPING
PRECIP GOING.

ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FEATURES FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON...SMALL SCALE
DETAILS CONTINUE TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOW INTO MID WEEK. UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHWEST CONUS TO KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH FRONT
LINGERING NEARBY. CAP STRENGTH NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN RECENT PROGS BUT
STILL A CONCERN. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW SOME GRADIENT IN PRECIP CHANCES
WITH FRONT MORE LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
THOUGH STILL CHANCES IN THE SOUTH PARTICULARLY IF CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO THE NORTH. UPPER FLOW
LOOKS TO BACK ENOUGH TOWARD MID WEEK TO PUSH FRONT NORTH AND BRING
UPPER HEIGHTS UP SO KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT PAST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN WITH OUTFLOW CAVEATS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
347 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)