Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 19, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
PRECIP COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA AS MCS FALLS APART. SKIES
RAPIDLY CLEARING LEADING TO MORE SUN/WARMING THAN PREV EXPECTED.
HAVE RAISED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO DEW POINTS
AT LEAST A CATEGORY HIGHER THAN PREV FCST...BUT IN LINE WITH LAST
NIGHTS ADJUSTED MET GUIDANCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT QUITE AS
STEEP AS YESTERDAY...BUT CLOSE. WITH H5 LOW IN THE AREA...12Z H5
CHART SHOWS -14C COLD POOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE WARMER
TEMPS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS COULD ALLOW US TO REACH SIMILAR LEVELS.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
HAIL PRODUCING STORMS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SEVERE HAIL. ANY
LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
NOW.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 248 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS
ALSO PROGRESSING WESTWARD FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TOWARD
THE FOOTHILLS. ACTION SPURRED ON BY VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER TROF...PROGD TO REMAIN OVER OUR CWFA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWING SOUTH THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION...SO THAT WHAT WE LOSE IN DYNAMICS IS COUNTERED BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE FLOW INTO THE CWFA THROUGH MID
MORNING. WILL PLAN TO FEATURE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH
SECONDARY MAXIMA FOR FAVORED NORTH CAROLINA UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGD TO BECOME DEEPER INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SURFACE THETA-E RIDGE PROJECTED UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALCHIANS
DURING BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...EVEN AS THETA-E SLIPS
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT UNDER THE UPPER TROF AND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS JUICY LOW LEVEL AIR
PRODUCES RATHER LARGE CAPES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY...WITH
INSTABILITY FALLING OFF TOWARD THE EAST. THAT COULD LEAD TO GREATER
STRONG STORM POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. AS OF NOW...THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

NAM AND GFS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY BUT EACH PRODUCES A WOBBLE OF THE UPPER LOW
AT VARIOUS TIMES...RESULTING IN A NUMBER OF TIMING ISSUES REGARDING
BURSTS OF DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 50H TEMPERATURES -13C TO -14C SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT BY ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDINESS. STILL...LAPSE
RATES QUITE STEEP FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT LATER TODAY. BOTH MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TODAY WILL FEATURE THE WEAKEST DYNAMICS...AS BOTH
PINWHEEL A VORT AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER TOWARD THE EASTERN AND
THEN NORTHERN ZONES LATER TONITE BUT FEATURE A NVA AXIS AS THE VORT
CURRENTLY AFFECTING OUR REGION SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY LATE MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL FEATURE LOW WET BULB ZEROES TODAY BUT
WITH MEAN WIND FLOW OF 7 TO 10 KTS COMPARED WITH 3 TO 5 KTS OBSERVED
SUNDAY EVENING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP LATER TODAY SHOULD
AT LEAST MOVE AND NOT LINGER IN ONE LOCATION. WILL FEATURE HIGHEST
AFTERNOON POPS (40%) FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MODELS PROJECTING SOME
UPGLIDE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONTINUING TODAY EVEN AS LOW LEVEL
WIND GRADUALLY VEERS TO AN ORIENTATION PARALLEL TO OUR EASTERN
ESCARPMENT...AND ALSO ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...WHERE CONTINUED
UPGLIDE AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEPTH OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST TODAY. 30 POPS
ELSEWHERE TODAY.

MODELS PINWHEEL VARIOUS VORTS INTO THE CWFA FROM NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A QUITE WET DAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST AREAS...AS THE SUNDAY
NITE VORT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS
MONDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY PROGD TO ROTATE IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CONVERGENT AREA
FOR THESE FEATURES WOULD BE THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA/ADJACENT UPSTATE AREAS. LAPSE
RATES STILL STEEP ON MODEL PROGS...AND UPPER FLOW WEAKENS AGAIN WITH
SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT PROJECTED AGAIN. WILL FEATURE 40 POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWFA...30S EAST. WE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS
MONDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING.

AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS
EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS INITIATES A WESTERLY FLOW AT SURFACE
AND ALOFT AS TUESDAY MORNING BEGINS...AND SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE FEATURE NO MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWER
WORDING FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NITE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST. WE WENT SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR OUR INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
BUT MAXES ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. WITH
DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPING TUESDAY...MAXES SHOULD COME IN A BIT HIGHER
TUESDAY BUT WE COOLED BELOW PREVIOUS PACKAGE NUMBERS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
IN THE WAKE OF STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...GFS AND LATEST 12KM
NAM STILL BRING BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY. LOW
LEVELS LOOK DRY FOR CONVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE STILL PREVALENT ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS JUNCTURE BUT DID
COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT PERIOD. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SFC LOW PRESSURE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH WILL KEEP CWA IN LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT KEEPING AREA UNSTABLE...COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN-EVE HOURS.
EXPECT EARLY MORNING MVFR CIG AND VIS TO LIFT TO VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IN SHOWERS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL BE E TO NE AT 10 KTS OR
LESS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-201000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
548 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY LIKELY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OR AS SLOW
MOVING AS STORMS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY. STILL...ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ONE OR TWO STORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD BE ONGOING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A DRYING...DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT AS OF
NOW...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-192100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AT 130 PM EDT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT...MAINLY FROM SALISBURY TO CHARLOTTE...AND INTO YORK AND
CHESTER COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...BETWEEN BURNSVILLE...NEWLAND...AND
BANNER ELK.

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AS SATURDAY...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SMALL AREAS...AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

STRONG STORMS WERE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MECKLENBURG
COUNTY...AND COULD BRING A QUICK INCH OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME
URBAN FLOODING...TO PARTS OF THE QUEEN CITY.

ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF A STORM APPROACHES...YOU SHOULD MOVE
INSIDE UNTIL THE STORM HAS COMPLETELY MOVED AWAY.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE A FEW WARNINGS.

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     HAIL             10 NW CHARLOTTE         35.30N 80.96W
06/19/2005  0.88 INCH        MECKLENBURG        NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL FELL MAINLY AS PENNY SIZE WITH A FEW NICKELS.

&&

NED