Flash Flood in North Carolina, July 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
CONVERGENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING IS RESULTING IN
A RING OF CONVECTION FROM THE MIDLANDS TO NORTHERN GA THEN NORTH
INTO ERN TN. DEEPER INTO THE CAD THERE HAS ALSO BEEN QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LEE SLOPES AND ACROSS A SOMEWHAT
WEAKER TMB ACROSS THE SRN UPSTATE AND NE GA. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.

PLAN TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WITH THE
SHORT WAVE YET TO CROSS THE MTNS AND LOW 70 DWPTS AND UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWFA. LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO
35 KTS. THERE HAS BEEN CLEARING AND TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE
SRN AND SW MTNS AS WELL...AND EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER  NEW
STORMS MAY FIRE OUT THAT WAY. WL CUT POPS BACK TO CHANCE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW...WL NOT REMOVE THEM
COMPLETELY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MID/UPPER HEIGHTS PROGGED TO RISE ON MONDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA COAST. ASSOCIATED WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND MID/UPPER DRYING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWFA ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION BECMG
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ALONG ANY COLD POOLS (BUT SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO
WEAK FOR THAT ATTM.) IN ADDITION...WEAK CAP INDICATED ON NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES CONVECTION MAY NOT REALLY GET GOING
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 40 POP MNTNS
AND 30 POP EAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY BE
TOMORROW EVENING...AS NAM DEPICTS SW TROUGH RIDING OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR
AND COOLING AT CAP LEVEL...SO WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MISS VALLEY...WITH ATM LESS
CAPPED AND MORE SHEARED...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LESS IMPRESSIVE.
WILL FEATURE POPS SIMILAR TO THAT OF MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL
EXTEND POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WED...AS SW TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...WE
MAY EXPERIENCE A RARE RESPITE FROM JULY CONVECTION LATE THIS
WEEK...AS THE GFS DEPICTS UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL FEATURE POPS AROUND CLIMO...GENERALLY 20 TO 30%
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP
CIGS AND VSBYS LOW FOR A WHILE ACROSS THE UPSTATE. WL ALSO TEMP IN
SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT KHKY AND KAVL WHERE UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP
REDEVELOP CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THE NEXT FEW HRS. WL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...BUT WL KEEP LGT
PREVAILING SHRA IN AS UPSLOPE SHOULD KEEP QUITE A BIT OF SHRA
ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. WL TAKE CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO LOW END MVFR
LATER TNGT...EXCEPT AT KAVL AND KAND WHERE I WENT IFR. WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WE SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033-034-049-050-053>055-062>068
     MIDNIGHT.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>007-010 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...LANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-040945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
542 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY AND UPSTATE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S CLINTON             34.41N 81.87W
07/03/2005                   LAURENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HWY 56 SOUTH AND WHITMIRE RD.

&&

SBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED EVENT TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S CLINTON             34.41N 81.87W
07/03/2005                   LAURENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HWY 56 SOUTH AND WHITMIRE RD.

&&

SBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 SE ANDERSON          34.40N 82.50W
07/03/2005                   ANDERSON           SC   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NWS SURVEY FOUND GUSTS TO 70 MPH KNOCKED DOWN NUMEROUS
            TREES AND POWER LINES WHICH CAUSED SOME DAMAGE WHEN THEY
            FELL. ALSO...ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
            NEARBY WHICH WAS NOT SURVEYED. MUCH OF THE DAMAGE ALONG
            JONES CHAPEL ROAD.

0125 PM     HAIL             12 SE ANDERSON          34.40N 82.50W
07/03/2005  2.75 INCH        ANDERSON           SC   NWS STORM SURVEY

            DURING SURVEY THERE WAS ONE REPORT FROM PUBLIC OF
            BASEBALL HAIL...TWO REPORTS OF HEN EGG HAIL...AND
            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GOLF BALL HAIL IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY
            HIGHWAYS 28/413/284/185/20 IN SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY.

0140 PM     TORNADO          5 NNW DUE WEST          34.40N 82.42W
07/03/2005                   ABBEVILLE          SC   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NWS SURVEY FOUND F0 TO F1 TORNADO TRACK OF 3/4 MILE TO 1
            MILE ALONG HIGHWAY 185 NORTH OF DUE WEST. MOST DEBRIS
            BLOWN TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...BUT CONVERGING DAMAGE
            PATTERN NOTED ALONG NORTH SIDE OF TRACK WHERE DEBRIS WAS
            BLOWN BACK TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.

0140 PM     HAIL             5 NNW DUE WEST          34.40N 82.42W
07/03/2005  1.00 INCH        ABBEVILLE          SC   NWS STORM SURVEY

            PUBLIC RELAYED REPORT IN AREA OF TORNADO TRACK

0155 PM     HAIL             DONALDS                 34.38N 82.35W
07/03/2005  1.00 INCH        ABBEVILLE          SC   NWS STORM SURVEY

            PUBLIC RELAYED REPORT. SURVEY NOTED DENTED VEHICLES FROM
            THE HAIL.

&&

JONES