Flooding and Hail in Oklahoma, July 3 to 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.UPDATE...
NO NEED TO MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE
STORMS AND SOME WILL BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN. NUFF SAID. TWEAKED
SOME PRE-MIDNITE POPS UP N AND ADJUSTED EVENING CLOUD COVER FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005)

DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS NOW MOVING INTO COLORADO PER WV IMAGERY..WITH
RATHER STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON FOR
SUCH A SOUTHERN LATITUDE. INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
CENT/NRN KS APPEARS TO BE THE OPENING SALVO IN WHAT CUD BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SVR WX EVENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER WCENT/SW KS AREA AND THEN ORGANIZE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS BY 03-05Z. RATHER RIDICULOUS INSTABILITIES
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE..WITH
MUCAPE NOW AOA 5000 J/KG. ONCE SYSTEM ORGANIZES..THERE WILL BE
NOTHING STOPPING IT FROM BLASTING ESEWD OVERNIGHT AS MODELS DEPICT
40-50KT LLJ FEEDING INTO SYSTEM THRU 12Z. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE 1)
WHAT WILL BE THE EXACT PATH OF THE MOST INTENSE WINDS? AND 2) WHAT
WILL THE EXACT TIMING BE? AND 3) HOW FAR EAST WILL THE THREAT
EXIST?  IF CURRENT CONVECTIVE MODE TO THE NW OF ICT IS ANY
INDICATION..EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR LIKELY..AT LEAST
DURING FIRST 3-5 HRS OF EVOLUTION..SUGGESTING AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL IN NARROW
SWATHS. FOR NOW..IT APPEARS GREATEST RISK OF WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE WITH ENHANCED CORRIDORS OF HURRICANE+ WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF OKLAHOMA..BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS AS THE ENTIRE MCS OFTEN HAS A TENDENCY TO RIGHT-WARD
PROPAGATE IN THESE SITUATIONS. ALSO..ALTHOUGH HIGHEST-END EVENTS
MAY OCCUR OVER THE NW PART OF OKLAHOMA..WE SEE VIRTUALLY NOTHING
TO STOP MCS FOR BLASTING ESEWD THRU 12Z..WHICH WUD BRING DAMAGING
WIND THREAT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE OUN CWA.

ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
OK/NTEXAS AREA THROUGH AROUND MID WEEK AS WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS ON NE PERIPHERY OF SW CONUS UPPER RIDGE AXIS..JUXTAPOSED
WITH INSTABILITY AXIS EACH EVENING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS FOR LATER
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BE
INCREASING IN AMPLITUDE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES..WHICH WERE
IT TO VERIFY..WUD LIKELY RESULT IN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. FOR NOW..THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WITH NO
POPS AND A HOT/HUMID FORECAST FOR FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE..THIS IS MY LAST OPERATIONAL FORECAST SHIFT AT
WFO NORMAN. IT HAS BEEN A HONOR TO WORK FOR..AND WITH..THE LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGERS..MEDIA AND PUBLIC OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS..AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONS IN
NORMAN AND ALL SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE PAST SEVEN YEARS. BEST
WISHES TO ALL.
 MILLER

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO OKARCHE
TO CUSHING. SOUTH OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA... THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
COVERS LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ARCHER CITY TO ARDMORE TO
COALGATE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 9 PM THROUGH 3
AM ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA... AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 40 AREA SOUTHWARD.

EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS TO
80 MPH OR MORE...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR POSSIBLY
LARGER.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE RISK AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS OVERNIGHT. ALL
PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ARE STRONGLY
ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ...AND TO
STAY AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS..

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG AND NEAR
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OR
CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. THE RESULTING STORM
COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...AND CONTINUE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING...WITH CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 3000 TO 5000
RANGE. THIS LEVEL OF INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...WILL RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD AND OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JULY 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINS ALSO COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE MAY STILL BE SEVERE WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK... AS A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR
THE AREA AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE
PLAINS. IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY WILL BE THE HIGHEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY JULY 4.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
809 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

OKZ007-008-040130-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-
809 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRANT AND KAY COUNTIES.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 29 MILES NORTH OF
CHILOCCO TO 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANCHESTER AT 809 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

PEOPLE IN GRANT AND KAY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF PONCA
CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

OKZ004>013-015-017-018-040315-
ALFALFA OK-BLAINE OK-DEWEY OK-ELLIS OK-GARFIELD OK-GRANT OK-HARPER
OK-KAY OK-KINGFISHER OK-MAJOR OK-NOBLE OK-WOODS OK-WOODWARD OK-820
PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

...LARGE COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...

AT 815 PM CDT... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS.  THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND AFFECT A LARGE PART OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA FOR
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH... ALONG WITH HAIL AT LEAST UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS.  SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THE COMPLEX ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH AND BASEBALL
SIZE HAIL.

THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THESE STORMS IS NOW.

PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS TONIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THIS INCLUDES PEOPLE WHO ARE CAMPING OR AT AREA LAKES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... AND LARGE GATHERING OF PEOPLE FOR FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS LATER THIS EVENING. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A BATTERY POWERED
RADIO... OR OTHER SOURCE OF COMMUNICATION... TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION... AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION TO SEEK
SHELTER IF SEVERE STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA LATER TONIGHT.

 MILLER