Flash Flood in North Carolina, July 19, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MID LEVEL WLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP A CONVECTION MINIMA ACROSS MOST
OF NE GA/UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT. BEST COVERAGE OVER NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AS IN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION
ANYWHERE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER HAVE
HIGHEST POP THIS EVENING OVER MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH LOW CHC MOST
OF NE GA/UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT. THEN HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT
STILL CHC...POP ALONG THE SRN CWFA BORDER WHERE SECONDARY CONVECTIVE
MAXIMA OCCURRING.

VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT FOG MOST
LOCATIONS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND MTN VALLEYS
WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT HAVE LEFT DENSE WORDING OUT OF THE
ZONES FOR NOW.

ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DRY IN THE MID LEVELS AS LEE TROF SHOULD PIVOTS TO
THE EAST WED AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRYING...RESULTING IN LOW POPS. BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS THE BEST
SOLUTION WITH KEEPING MUCH OF THE FA IN THE MOIST AIR...RESULTING IN
SCT COVERAGE. EITHER SOLUTION WILL YIELD NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW
PROPAGATING STORMS WED...WHICH IS REASON ENOUGH FOR LOW POPS. H5
WEAKENS THU...ALLOWING WEAK VORTS TO MOVE ALONG WITH THE NW FLOW
INTO THE FA. THU HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE L90S OVER L70S
YIELDING CAPES AROUND 3K. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK AND
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-10 KTS. WITH WEAK
CAPPING...EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS AND A LESSER CHC
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THU NIGHT AND FRI...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT A DECENT S/W
WILL RIPPLE OVER THE FA. THE NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING AN MCS TO
THE TN/NC LINE AROUND 12Z FRI. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER...BRINGING
THE CORE OF THE ACTIVITY INTO THE MTNS AROUND 18Z. BELIEVE THE BEST
APPROACH IS TO USE A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BEGINNING WITH AN
INCREASING TREND IN THE POPS EARLY FRI AM. WILL KEEP POPS THE
HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN HALF...HOWEVER...6-12 HR POPS WILL FALL
AROUND 40%.

OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUES...H5 RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST WITH
H85 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE L20S C. MEX MOS WARMS HIGH TEMPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S...WHICH SEEMS TO ALSO BE THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBER.
AT THIS POINT...I AM UNCERTAIN HOW WELL THE MEX GUIDANCE WILL
PERFORM GIVEN THE PATTERN AND RECENT CLIMO. KAVL HAS NOT SEEN THE
TEMP RISE TO 90 IN OVER TWO YEARS...BUT MEX GIVES 91 FOR
SAT...SUN...AND MON. THIS IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN FOR HOT TEMPS...BUT
WILL FORECAST VALUES BETWEEN THE MEAN AND OP. OVERALL...DEEP RIDGING
WILL YIELD HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
I FAVORED RIDGETOP POPS AND SCHC FROM THE FOOTHILLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. SCT TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION ATTM. THUNDER CHC BEST AT KAVL/KHKY...SO HAVE VCTS
THERE...AND ONLY CB ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. HAVE ALL SITES GOING TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. IFR VSBY/CIG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHC TOO LOW FOR MENTION XCPT AT KAVL.
GUIDANCE SOLIDLY IFR THERE...SO CONDITIONS BEGIN AT 09Z WITH MVFR AT
13Z...THEN VFR AT 15Z. ALL OTHER SITES BECOMING VFR BY 14Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH/NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
604 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-201015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
604 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LANE