Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING CLOUD TOPS ENHANCING OVER
EASTERN TN WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE NC MTNS.
SKY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT REMAIN SCT...WITH A FEW LARGER
PATCHES OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR ABOUT TO EXIT THE FA. EXPECT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING
AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SRN NC PIEDMONT. WITH DWPTS IN THE
U60S TO L70S...SREF INDICATES THAT CAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

RADAR TRENDS AND NAM SHOW THAT CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION OVER TN
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE NC MTNS EARLY THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FORCING LATER IN THE DAY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FA. COVERAGE WILL CERTAINLY BE THE HIGHEST OVER THE MTNS...BUT WITH
ONLY INSTABILITY TO PRESERVE ACTIVITY...EXPECT ONLY SCT COVERAGE
EAST. WILL ADJUST TIMING OF PRECIP IN THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
THINKING. THE DELAY IN CLOUDS AND SH/TS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN
PORTIONS TO WARM OVER CURRENT VALUES...ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 318 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE LOWER OH VALLEY...SUGGESTING
PERSISTENCE IS NOT A BAD FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...BAND OF PRECIP SEEN OVER MIDDLE TN MIGHT
REACH THE NC BORDER AROUND SUNRISE OR THEREABOUTS BEFORE IT STARTS
TO DISSIPATE...SO A LIKELY POP WILL BE CARRIED STARTING FIRST THING
THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN ZONES. MODELS SHOW SPOKE OF VORTICITY
ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOST ANYWHERE IN THIS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS. GIVEN THAT WE ESSENTIALLY HAD 60-70 PERCENT
COVERAGE YESTERDAY WITH LESS FORCING...THINK THE LIKELY POP
INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE SHOULD WORK OUT FINE...BUT MAYBE NOT UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE EAST TO ACCOMMODATE THIS
THINKING. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...WE ARE LESS UNSTABLE TODAY
WITH LESS MID LEVEL DRY AIR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER VORT
EXPECTED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BEYOND
THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS SHOWN BY MODEL GUIDANCE
DWINDLES...BUT EXPECT THE CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
TEMP FORECAST THROUGHOUT BASED ON TRENDS IN MAV GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A PEEK AT THE NEW GFS OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FINALLY NOSING IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING US BACK
TO CLIMATOLOGY ON THE PRECIP CHANCES. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT
THIS TIME.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY A MIX OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR THE LATE HOURS ACRS THE
TERMINALS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LASTING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ENERGY TRANSLATING IN FROM THE WEST IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN DECENT
DEEP CONVECTIVE CVRG...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS NOON AT KAVL AND MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
604 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-141015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
604 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS WITHIN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES OWING TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION AND ELEVATED STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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