Strong Wind in North Carolina, January 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ANOTHER UPDATE FOR REPLACEMENT OF WT 14 WITH NEW TOR WATCH 15
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10Z. THIS WILL NECESSITATE REARRANGING OF ZONES.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK OK. DECIDED BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD BE TO
EXTEND LAKE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM.
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
EXTREME WESTERN PART OF TOR WATCH 14 CLEARED...SEE LATEST SPSGSP.
STILL VERY ACTIVE AS OF 10PM WITH REMNANT SUPERCELL TRACKING QUICKLY
NE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC. LINEAR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TOR
WATCH. WILL UPDATE ZFP FOR WATCH...BUT EXPECT FEW CHANGES TO BULK OF
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER UPDATE IS PLANNED FOR MIDNIGHT...AT
WHICH TIME PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ADDRESSED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

ISSUED AT 207 PM.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SW FLOW INCREASING AS H5 TROF DIGS OVER MS VALLEY INTO GULF AND
TRACKS E TOWARD AREA. DEEP MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM SW WILL BRING
RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. STRONG S WINDS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL
OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S FACING MTN
ESCARPMENT. QPF LESS THAN 2 INCHES HOWEVER AND 6HR FFG IS 3-4IN SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCH. MODEL CAPE GETS UP TO 1100 AND HELICITY
NEAR 300 SW CWA BRIEFLY THIS EVE BUT FIZZLES QUICKLY AS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES NE. VERY LITTLE THUNDER WITH THIS SYS AND CLOUD TOPS WARMING.
WILL KEEP CHANCE TSTMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WITH 50-60KT WINDS FORECAST AT
85H WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. SYSTEM EXPECTED THROUGH
BY MID DAY FRI. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEG COLDER SAT-SUN...LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 20S BY SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AFTER THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW
THAT REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE MON MORNING AND
ANOTHER SHOT WED NIGHT. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THESE FRONTS DROP INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND WILL ADVERTISE TEMPS
CLOSE TO THE BELOW NORMAL MEX AND HPC GUIDANCE. MOISTURE SUPPLY
LOOKS WEAK AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS AND WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SCHC MTN
SN...WITH FLURRIES MENTIONED WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES UNTIL 6 AM EST.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES UNTIL 6 AM EST.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES UNTIL 6 AM EST.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 AM EST THU JAN 13 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-141110-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
546 AM EST THU JAN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. REFER TO THE LATEST
NPWGSP FOR MORE INFORMATION. OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
MPH...AND POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH.
REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE
FOR DETAILS (CAESPSGSP).

A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...WITH THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS RECEIVING
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. REFER TO THE SPS FOR DETAILS ON THIS
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LAMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
831 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

SCZ009-014-140215-
CHESTER-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTER...ROCK HILL
831 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

...DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...

AT 825 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TIP OF CHESTER COUNTY NEAR LOCKHART AT AROUND 835 PM. IT
WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST YORK COUNTY AT AROUND 840 PM...AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT
915 PM.

SEVERAL TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS EVENING.
PERSONS IN LOCKHART...SHARON...YORK...CLOVER...AND SURROUNDING AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT HOUR...AND BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY IF A TORNADO WARNING
IS ISSUED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
908 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

NCZ070-071-140245-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...GASTONIA
908 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...

AT 9 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM
WITH A HISTORY OF STRONG ROTATION OVER WESTERN YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL ENTER
GASTON COUNTY SOUTH OF GASTONIA AT AROUND 920 PM...THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY THROUGH 945 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM
HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY BY THE TIME IT
ENTERS GASTON COUNTY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

PERSONS ACROSS EASTERN GASTON...AND WESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IN CASE A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
927 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

GAZ029-SCZ003-006-007-010>012-019-140322-
ABBEVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-ELBERT GA-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-LAURENS SC-SPARTANBURG SC-
927 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH
ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
THE LINE WILL REACH THE GREENVILLE METRO AREA BY 945 PM...AND THE
AREA FROM SIMPSONVILLE TO ABBEVILLE...BETWEEN 945 PM AND 1015 PM.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE
LIMBS. EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR AS THE LINE
OF STORMS PASSES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
951 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

NCZ036-057-069-071-072-140345-
CABARRUS-IREDELL-LINCOLN NC-MECKLENBURG-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...LINCOLNTON...
SALISBURY...STATESVILLE
951 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...

AT 945 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEAST GASTON AND SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THROUGH 1045 PM...THIS STORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN MECKLENBURG...SOUTHERN IREDELL...AND NORTHWEST ROWAN
COUNTIES. THIS STORM COULD INTENSIFY AT ANY MOMENT. A TORNADO WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

INTERESTS IN DAVIDSON...MOORESVILLE...CLEVELAND...AND SURROUNDING
AREAS SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IN
CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001-002-004-005-140326-
ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-
RABUN GA-STEPHENS GA-
1005 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 14 CLEARED WEST OF A LINE FROM PICKENS TO
CLEMSON AND HARTWELL...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CLEARED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN CLEARED ARE OCONEE AND PICKENS
IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE COUNTIES OF RABUN...HABERSHAM...
STEPHENS...FRANKLIN...HART...AND ELBERT IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FROM GREENVILLE...
ANDERSON...AND ABBEVILLE COUNTY...AND EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 77
CORRIDOR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

MOORE

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