Flooding in New York, November 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
FRONT HAS PASSED THE FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
REGION. TRAILING MIDLVL S/WV EXPECTED TO CROSS MAINLY WRN-NRN NY
TODAY. COLDER AIR SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH BLYR WINDS COMING AROUND
WESTERLY...BUT POORLY ALIGNED AND RATHER WEAK. GFS/NAM INDICATE SOME
LGT QPF...MAINLY FINGER LAKES REGION THRU 00Z SO WL MAINTAIN LOW CHC
FOR PRECIP. COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS 40-45. WL GO
WITH MIX OF RA/SN SHOWERS. RIDGING TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR DRY...BUT SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES.

CHANGES IN STORE AGAIN FOR THURS NITE AND FRIDAY WITH UPR TROF
SWINGING FROM GTLKS TO NORTHEAST. HGT FALLS AHEAD OF WAVE WL
INCREASE LLVL-MIDLVL WINDS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPLY WRN-N CNTRLY NY. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO WRN MHWK VALLEY AND SRN TUG...WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY COME INTO PLAY TWD FRIDAY MORNING. CHC LGT SNOW
ELSEWHERE...BUT PROBABLY ONLY FLURRIES TOWARD AVP-MSV. THEN...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND...COLD WNW CYCLONIC FLOW SETS
UP WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -12C FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
GOOD SETUP FOR WNW SINGLE BAND OF LES DVLPG FRIDAY AND BEYOND. SHEAR
DECREASES THRU FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GFS BUFKIT SHOWING MDT-EXTREME LAKE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING ABOVE 700 MB EMBEDDED WITHIN
DENDRITIC ZONE. INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN FAVORABLE 270-290
TRAJECTORIES TO LIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH CHC SHSN FINGER LAKES AND
NRN SUSQ REGION.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...TRENDING
COLDER THROUGH FRIDAY. -JAB
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
LAKE EFFECT WILL LINGER THRU SATURDAY BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF
BREAK ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. OF COURSE THERE IS A LOT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR MONDAY, WITH CHC
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. -JML
&&

.AVIATION (30/06Z - 31/06Z)...
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVED OUT JUST BEFORE THIS ISSUANCE.  SOME LOWER
CIGS INTO MAINLY MVFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIG HEIGHTS THE NEXT 2 TO
4 HOURS BEFORE LOWER MVFR CIGS RETURN. WITH THE BREAKS SOME MVFR
VSBY FOG COULD FORM WITH THE DAMP GROUND. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE AFTN. WINDS WILL STAY
MOSTLY UNDER 10KTS THROUGH PERIOD. DIRECTION STARTING OUT SW AND
SHIFTING TO NW.  TAC
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1-2+ INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON TUES-TUES NITE WITH MAX
AMOUNTS SHOWING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER...AND PORTIONS
OF NEPA WEST OF I-81. MODEL QPF WAS VERY GOOD. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE FINGER LAKES...SRN TIER NY AND PARTS OF
NRN TIER PA. NOW...TRIBS AND CREEKS ARE FLUSHING INTO MAIN STEM
RIVERS. LATEST RIVER FCST MODELS SHOW A FEW POINTS ON THE
CHEMUNG...AND SEVERAL POINTS ON THE SUSQUEHANNA APCHG CLOSE
TO...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGES TODAY. WILL THEREFORE EXTEND
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES THAT CONTAIN THESE WATER COURSES...
OTHERWISE WILL DROP WATCH ACROSS REST OF AREA. FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO
BE CONTINUED FOR ONEIDA COUNTY...AS MOHAWK RIVER RUNNING HIGH VCNTY
UTICA. -JAB
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR BROOME...CHEMUNG...CORTLAND...TIOGA AND
ONEIDA.
.PA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR BRADFORD...SUSQUEHANNA...LACKAWANNA...
LUZERNE AND WYOMING.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
417 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-302130-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
417 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
SEE THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT...WMO HEADER WGUS61 KBGM FFABGM...
FOR MORE DETAILS. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING COULD CAUSE
SMALL STREAM...URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREA FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE SMALLER RIVER POINTS COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED FLOOD
STAGE IF MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FALLS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...OBSERVED
FLOODING...OR REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1 800 759 2992

NICOSIA