Damaging Wind in New York, July 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
845 AM THU JUL 14 2005

.UPDATE...

HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICS AND ALPHA-NUMERICS TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

THE STORMS DO NOT HAVE SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS TO THEM AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER THEY ARE PRODUCING A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IN
LESS THAN AN HOUR AND DO CONTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE EVIDENT ON THE EARLY MORNING VIS
PICS AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THEY ARE MAINTAINING INTENSITY WITH
TOPS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 35K VIA CLOUD TOP TEMPS.

THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY CROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM BEFORE ANY WEAKENING
TAKES PLACE. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 14K WITH CAPES AT OR BLO
1000 J/KG SHOULD PREVENT ANY HAIL RELATED PROBLEMS...HOWEVER RAIN
LOADED DOWNDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS.

RSH
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT IS A DIFFICULT
TASK TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS ON THE RADAR GENERALLY UNCORRELATED WITH
FEATURES IN THE MODELS.  UNRESOLVED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
MAIN TRIGGERS TODAY.  THE EXCEPTION IS THE ELONGATED 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF RAIN THAT
WAS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW THE VORTICITY DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
SO WE HAVE RETAINED THE 40% POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
POSTPONING THE ONSET UNTIL AFTERNOON SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.  WE WILL
FOLLOW MOS AND THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT.

WE HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SINKS FURTHER SOUTH. WE WILL STILL MENTION 30 POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE GFS DOESNT PUSH THE TROUGH AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH AS THE NAM, BUT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN STUBBORN IN
MOVING, SO WE LEAN TOWARD THE NAM.  HOPEFULLY LATER MODEL RUNS WILL
CONVERGE AND PROVIDE MORE CONFIDENCE.

WE ARE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE SATURDAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME AS THE
WEAKENED TROPICAL CIRCULATION FINALLY BREAKS DOWN WHEN THE CLOSED
UPPER CIRCULATION OPENS UP AND GETS KICKED TO THE NORTHEAST. WE WILL
KEEP POPS AT 50% FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION BUT A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW US
TO REMOVE THE CHANCE WORDING FOR MONDAY.

THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE NORTH OF THE UPPER
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS US LATE TUESDAY.
WE WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS FEATURE FOLLOWED HOPEFULLY BY A
WELL NEEDED DECREASE IN DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN FOG AFT 09Z AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL
TOWARD THE DEWPOINTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD
HAZE AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.MARINE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...APB
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...TJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
214 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

LOZ044-045-065-NYZ006>008-150800-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-OSWEGO-
214 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SAYS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER JEFFERSON LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINS THAT COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND PONDING ON AREA
ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LOZ042-043-062>064-NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-150800-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-MONROE-NIAGARA-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-
WYOMING-
214 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND PONDING ON AREA ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

APB