Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in New York, July 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
240 PM THU JUL 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...

...AND THE HEAT GOES ON...AND ON AND ON.

ONCE AGAIN WESTERN NEW YORK EXPERIENCED ANOMALOUS HEAT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS BAKING THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. BUFFALO SET YET ANOTHER RECORD FOR THE DAY...REACHING AT
LEAST 92 WHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 91 (1968). THAT MAKES 8
90+ DAYS OF HEAT IN BUFFALO...MORE THAN DOUBLING THE NORMAL NUMBER
FOR ONE SUMMER. ROC NOW STANDS AT 7 DAYS. WHILE THAT IS NOT ABOVE
THEIR NORMAL TOTAL FOR ONE SUMMER (10 DAYS) IT IS WELL ABOVE THE
CURVE FOR MID JULY.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT WEEK OR SO ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS EXTREME...READINGS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAT HAS HELPED TO DRY OUT SFC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS 30 TO 50 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL IN SFC MOSTURE VALUES.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL BE
INCREASING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF INCREASED
FOCUSING MECHANISMS (SFC BOUNDARIES) AND THE PASSING OF THE REMNANTS
OF DENNIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING AS CAPES WILL AVERAGE 2000
TO 3000 J/KG. COMBINE THIS INSTABILITY WITH THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES...AND THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN BOUNDARY TO WATCH WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE U.S. NEARSHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO TO THE CANDADIAN NEARSHORES OF LK ERIE. THIS BOUNDARY
ALREADY HELPED TO FIRE UP STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY EARLIER TODAY.

THE OTHER BOUNDARIES WILL BE MESOSCALE IN NATURE WITH A LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY SRETCHING WEST TO EAST FROM YSN TO IAG TO ABOUT ROC.
ANOTHER LK BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...LIES ALONG THE NEW YORK
STATE THRUWAY FROM ERI TO BUF. VIS IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING
MODERATE CU ALONG THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WITH A CELL OR TWO
POPPING UP NEAR BUF. MORE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS POP AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
BECOME INVOLVED.

THE KBUF VAD SHOWS WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BLO 10K...SO WITH PWS
AROUND 1.6-1.75...SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS WILL BE COMMON WITH ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THIS MAY BE OUR BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RAIN LOADED DOWNDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS. SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
LARGE CAPE VALUES.

AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE A BIT AND A MID LEVEL CAP WILL THEN
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY. THIS CAP WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE CAP WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST TO THE
SOUTH.

IT WILL CERTAINLY BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...AS H8 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRY
SFC CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PROMOTING THE HEAT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO ON FRIDAY...SO EXPECT MANY AREAS TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. SLIGHTLY MORE TOLERABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WETSREN SOUTHERN TIER.

THE FORECAST WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM IS DRIER AND APPARENTLY SLOWER WITH THIS PROCESS...WHILE THE
NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE MODELS (THEREBY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NAM BASED
CONTINUITY) AND GO WITH CHC POPS FOR ALL AREAS BUT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS FORECAST IS ALSO CONSENSUS OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS REGIONWIDE AS THE REMNANTS
OF DENNIS SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THE REMNANTS COMBINED WITH AN ALREADY HUMID AIRMASS WILL
PROBABLY MAKE SATURDAY ONE OF THE MOST OPPRESSIVE DAYS THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS TDS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/REMNANTS OF DENNIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. CHC POPS WILL BE USED FOR BOTH
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF A
CONTINUED STORNG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE CORRESPONDING H8 TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER
TEENS. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE 90 DEGREE MAX TEMPS IN THE NORMALLY
WARMER AREAS WITH MID-UP 80S ELSEWHERE. BOUNDARIES WILL BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN FOR MONDAY SO SLIGHT CHC POPS WILL REFLECT THIS.

THE CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CHC POPS FOR STORMS WILL BE USED FOR THIS SCENARIO TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH CONSENSUS H8 TEMPS OF +16C EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN FOG AND HAZE AFTER 06Z WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDS AFT 09Z. FOG AND HAZE LIFTING AFTER 13Z.

&&

.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.MARINE...NONE.

SHORT/LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
214 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

LOZ044-045-065-NYZ006>008-150800-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-OSWEGO-
214 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SAYS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER JEFFERSON LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINS THAT COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND PONDING ON AREA
ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LOZ042-043-062>064-NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-150800-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-MONROE-NIAGARA-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-
WYOMING-
214 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND PONDING ON AREA ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

APB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1024 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WATSON                  43.78N 75.44W
07/14/2005                   LEWIS              NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON RIVER RD.

&&

TAN