Damaging Wind in New York, August 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
920 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2005

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO CLEAR OUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN OVER
CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES, BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL BE OUT OF THESE AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
JUST ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN WESTERN NEW YORK.

.SYNOPSIS...

MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS BEFORE
RELIEF ARRIVES WITH A COLD FRONT THURS NT AND FRI MORNING. WE WILL
STILL BE IN NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT
AND WED...SO CANT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATD CONVECTION ALMOST
ANYWHERE...BUT THURS SHOULD BE DRY IN CENTER OF RIDGE...AND HOT.
TEMPS DROP OFF TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WEEKEND BEFORE RISING AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH RECEDES TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THINGS QUIET DOWN TONIGHT...ANOTHER MUGGY ONE. WED WILL BE SIMILAR.
RIDGE AXIS A LITTLE CLOSER BUT STILL SEMBLANCE OF NW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY EAST. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS ALL ZONES FOR THE
DAY...WITH 850 TEMPS OF 18C OR SO SUPPORTING U80S/NR 90.

AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER US ON THURS...AND WELL HAVE SOME
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION...BUT 850 TEMPS OF 20-21C WILL RESULT IN OPPRESSIVELY HOT
(90-95) CONDITIONS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING FRONT
ACROSS ERN LAKES AND THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME
EARLY FRIDAY...GFS A BIT SLOWER IN ITS EXIT...WILL CONTINUE WITH 40
POPS LATE THURS NT INTO FRI AM..WILL SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN WEST FRI
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AFTER A WEEK OF SULTRY CONDITIONS...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE
THE PAYOFF AS DRY AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE SATURDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME TROFFINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE
THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HUMIDITY ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE DETAILS...

COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR SETTLE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH A SFC HIGH WORKING ACROSS
THE STATE ON SATURDAY. H8 TEMPS AVG +13C WILL PRODUCE SAT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHICH IS RIGHT AT 30 YEAR NORMALS.

SUNDAY WILL THEN BE ANOTHER NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...
ALTHOUGH A RETURN FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE WILL
BOOST SFC TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A FAIRLY DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z GFS DIFFERS
WITH THE OLDER 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES IN THAT IT ADVECTS +20C H8 AIR INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ENSEMBLES WERE NOTABLY
LOWER WITH H8 TEMPS AVG +16...BUT IN EITHER CASE...A WARM AND MORE
HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

IN SUMMARY...THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
RAIN FREE WITH TEMPS AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING FURTHER DOWN
THE ROAD...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
BULLSEYE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE
PERIOD OF AUG 10 THROUGH 16.

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBUF AND KIAG THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE GENERALLY VFR FOR
CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH SUNSET.

WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MIXING OVERNIGHT I
EXPECT TO SEE VSBYS TO DROP 3SM IN LIGHT FOG AFTER 08Z. CLEAR SKIES
AND SATURATED AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL KEEP VSBYS AOB 1/2SM IN
FOG VCNTY KJHW AFT 08Z...AND CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY GO OBSCURED AOB
200 FEET THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.MARINE...NONE.

UPDATE
SHORT TERM...MCLAUGHLIN
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...NIZIOL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
541 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2005

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-
030940-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
541 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

TMA