Flood in New Jersey, December 16 to 17, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

.UPDATE...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST.  DID BRING THE LOWS IN
THE POCONOS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES, SO NO TEENS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS
DPS EVERYWHERE ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER A TAD FOR MOSTLY HIGH CIRRUS MOVING IN.

SMALL CRAFTS WERE DROPPED OVER THE BAY AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE THAT STRONG OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFTS WERE LEFT OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ROBERTSON

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME APPROACHING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS OHIO AND NEW
YORK WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT THEN THEY SHOULD
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA ATTM
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO OUR ZONES.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WILL
BE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH SCT TO BKN COVERAGE. THESE CIRRUS ARE
COURTESY OF AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC REGION DEVELOPING FROM THE
WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ON THIS ZONE AND MOVE NORTHEAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER. THE GFS IS FASTER, A BIT
STRONGER BUT LESS GENEROUS WITH ITS QPF ACROSS OR AREA. THE NAM IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS ITS SHIELD OF PRECIP (MAINLY SNOW) INTO DELMARVA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM SHOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS (IN THE
5 TO 7 INCH RANGE) OVER DE AND UP TO 3 IN PHILADELPHIA FOR SUNDAY.
WE HAVE STRAYED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION NOW AS HPC HAS INDICATED
THAT THE NAM MAY HAVE HAD SOME INITIALIZATION ISSUES FOR THE 12Z RUN
IN THE AREA WHERE THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. STILL...WE WILL
TIP OUR HATS TO THE IDEA OF SOME SNOW AND UPPED POPS SUNDAY INTO THE
CHC RANGE OVER DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST. HPC PROGS HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE
ECMWF IN THE MID RANGE. THESE PROGS SHOW THE H5 LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A LOBE EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS
AND SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY AND WILL BRING A
REINFORCING COLD SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 PATTERNS BEGINS TO
LOSE AMPLITUDE AS WED INTO FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MOISTURE FROM THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND DRY AIR
WITH VFR CONDITIONS HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WAS JUST SOME
CU/SC LEFT BEHIND. ALSO SOME 850 MB MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW SC TO MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA TNGT. HOWEVER, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALES OVER ALL AREAS AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX. SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN WINDS DROP BELOW 25 KTS,
MAINLY OVER DEL BAY AND THE SRN COAST. HOWEVER, ENOUGH GRADIENT
REMAINS AROUND THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCA TNGT, ESPECIALLY AS THE
TEMPERATURES DROP AND WE GET TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THE WATER
MOVING OFFSHORE. THEN ON SUNDAY, THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THEN ON MONDAY, MORE COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND WITH JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT, THAT SCA COULD AGAIN BE
NEEDED FROM MON AFTN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ450>455 UNTIL 7 AM
SATURDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...STAUBER
MARINE...STAUBER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
715 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-171015-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
444 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE, INCLUDING
THE DELAWARE BAY.

THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AS COLD AIR MOVES BACK IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING THIS
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS MOST VULNERABLE
WITH THIS EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED