Flood in New Jersey, December 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
645 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...ACARS SOUNDINGS...OKX VAD WIND PROFILE...AS WELL
AS BUOY/SFC OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS AT THE SFC AND JUST ALOFT ARE
INCREASING. LATEST RUC IN BUFKIT HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AROUND 60 KNOTS AT 2 KFT. THIS JET WILL COUPLE WITH A
MODEST SFC RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET. AS OF 11Z...AMBROSE TOWER
RECORDED A PEAK GUST OF 53 KTS...BUOY 44017 45 KT. NOTE BELMAR NJ
BRIEFLY WENT 28G39KT AT 11Z. SINCE SFC TEMPS HAVE BUSTED THROUGH THE
50 DEGREE MARK...THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT WIND ADVISORY WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN NOW AND 830-9AM AS LLJ
SWINGS THROUGH. THUS...HAVE HOISTED AN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF LONG
ISLAND/QUEENS/BROOKLYN...AS WELL AS SRN NEW LONDON COUNTY IN CT
UNTIL 9AM. EXPECT WINDS TO BRIEFLY GO SUSTAINED 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH.

EKSTER

&&

.NEAR TERM (TODAY)...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELAWARE AT 400 AM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH TODAY AND CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN. LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AIR INTO ALL OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING ON STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THERE. ADVISORY FOR
PASSAIC...ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WARM
AIR ALSO RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH MUCH
OF SOUTHERN ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES ABOVE FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WARNING AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER CANCELING
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. TIMING OF
THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS LOW
PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS.

TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A PROBLEM AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES AROUND 50...THEN HOLD STEADY
OR EVEN FALL A BIT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO SUNDAY. ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR.

LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SUNDAY WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO KEEP AREA DRY...BUT MAY BE MORE CLOUDS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NO CHANGES TO THE DATA AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY WX WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES. SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE AND
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME TYPICAL BIASES AS WELL AS
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON ONE LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUN AND
MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...BUT ARE NOT AS
CLEAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF A SECOND LOW EITHER LATE MON NIGHT/TUE
PER 12Z GFS...OR A DAY LATER PER SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED 12Z ECMWF.
GFS IN PARTICULAR COULD BE SHOWING USUAL BIAS OF OVERDOING THE
STRONG POLAR JET/CONFLUENCE ZONE WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING MUCH OF THIS
TIME...WHICH IN TURN COULD BE SUPPRESSING THESE DEVELOPMENTS TOO FAR
SOUTH.
&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH RAIN AS THE OVERWHELMING PRECIP TYPE. WINDS COULD GUST UP
TO 40 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z OR SO. LLWS WILL BE
PREVALENT DURING THIS TIME AS 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT ABOUT 2000
FT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE REGION. CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE MARKEDLY TO VFR MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS TO REMAIN UP EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ALL WATERS.
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH 13Z OR SO. 3HR
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. A LOW LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50-60 KT AT AROUND 2 KFT WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
WINDS AFTER 13Z INTO LATE MORNING AS PRES GRADIENT BECOMES RATHER
WEAK. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO GALE ON THE OCEAN AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MINOR TO VERY LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITION LIQUID TODAY UP TO A HALF INCH WITH TOTALS FOR THE EVENT IN
SOME LOCATIONS ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES. ONLY MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN
AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CTZ005-006 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR CTZ012 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
NJ...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NYZ067-068 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NYZ075>081 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR NYZ080 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ330-335-338 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
      ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ350-353-355 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
652 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

CTZ005-006-NYZ067-068-171100-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
652 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS WARMER AIR FLOWS IN. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF ICING THIS MORNING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

CTZ012-NYZ075>081-171100-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
652 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM FOR WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MILES AN HOUR WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MILES AN HOUR...OTHERWISE
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CTZ007>011-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ069>074-171100-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
652 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ350-353-355-171100-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
652 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH 5 PM TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS THIS MORNING.

WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ330-335-338-171100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
652 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.