Hail in Nebraska, April 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
220 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN OVER THE WEEKEND ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIFTED ONLY SLOWLY DEEPER INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...AND NOW IS BISECTING THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.  SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
GET STORMS TO FIRE IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  UPPER LOW WAS MEANDERING THROUGH KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING TO COOL MID LEVELS AND WAS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IN EASTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.  MEANWHILE STRONG 0-6KM
SHEAR NEAR 60KTS SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ABOVE
PARAMETERS...WILL PROVIDE TORNADIC THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.  REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 151 FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

AFTER THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION...EXPECT A TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SHOWERY RAIN CHANCE AS UPPER LOW ROLLS INTO MISSOURI BY
MORNING...AND SURFACE FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.  INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH STRUCTURE ALONG WITH LOBES OF VORTICITY ROUNDING
UPPER LOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCE IN THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO HAVE ONLY MADE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP CHANCES.

COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY SO HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP A BIT.  A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK IS STILL ON TAP AS
UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN.  COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN FORECAST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST.

00Z MODELS SEEMED TO BE CONVERGING ON A TIMING SOLUTION FOR NEXT
FRONT ROLLING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER 12Z GFS HAS SPED
THIS SYSTEM UP A BIT AND WOULD PLACE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE PRECIP ON SATURDAY.  HAVE OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO
CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BASED
ON EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND WEAKENING REX
BLOCK TO OUR EAST.  THIS WOULD PUT THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD OCCUR.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ONLY SLIGHTLY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

DERGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
948 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-112330-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
948 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DAVID CITY
TO TEKAMAH. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORM ARE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AN
AREA FROM NEAR FAIRBURY TO LINCOLN TO NEBRASKA CITY AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BOUSTEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1056 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     HAIL             VERDIGRE                42.60N 98.04W
04/10/2005  0.88 INCH        KNOX               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CHERMOK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1211 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ034-044-045-051>053-066>068-
078-088>093-120100-
BURT-CASS-DODGE-DOUGLAS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LANCASTER-MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-
PAGE IA-PAWNEE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-
SHELBY IA-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...BEATRICE...BELLEVUE...BLAIR...
CLARINDA...COUNCIL BLUFFS...CRETE...FAIRBURY...FALLS CITY...
FREMONT...GLENWOOD...HARLAN...LINCOLN...LOGAN...LOUISVILLE...
NEBRASKA CITY...OMAHA...ONAWA...PAWNEE CITY...RED OAK...SIDNEY...
TECUMSEH...TEKAMAH...WAHOO
1211 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 151 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR PARTS
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE TORNADO WATCH ARE AS FOLLOWS...

IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...

BURT...CASS...DODGE...DOUGLAS...GAGE...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
LANCASTER...NEMAHA...OTOE...PAWNEE...RICHARDSON...SALINE...
SARPY...SAUNDERS...WASHINGTON.

IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

FREMONT...HARRISON...MILLS...MONONA...MONTGOMERY...PAGE...
POTTAWATTAMIE...SHELBY.

DERGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
221 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             2 W LINCOLN             40.82N 96.73W
04/11/2005  1.00 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0208 PM     HAIL             3 W PLYMOUTH            40.30N 97.04W
04/11/2005  0.88 INCH        JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERED HIGHWAY 4.

&&

CHERMOK