Hail in Montana, June 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 12Z
MODELS INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO LONG AND
SHORT WAVES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IS THE NAM
PROGS A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...AS
WELL AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL THEREFORE USE THE 12Z NAM FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA OFF
A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...GETTING THROUGH MOST OF
THE ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT POSING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
RIDE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. WILL PLACE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THIS AREA. LOWER CHANCE POPS WILL BE KEPT
OVER THE PLAINS WHERE LIFT WILL BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AN
PRECIPITATION. SCHAUMANN

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE
AREA WILL HOLD WITH GENERALLY WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY SEE HEAVY RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED AT 1740Z
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST OUT OVER
THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL END IN THE WEST AFT 02Z AND IN THE EAST AROUND 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  60  41  62 /  70  20  20  20
CTB  43  61  39  61 /  70  20  20  20
HLN  48  61  43  61 /  60  30  30  30
BZN  44  58  36  56 /  60  40  40  40
WEY  37  52  30  50 /  50  40  40  40
DLN  39  55  34  53 /  50  40  40  50
HVR  50  65  43  68 /  50  30  30  30
LWT  48  59  38  60 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM....EMANUEL
AVIATION...EMANUEL

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2005

MTZ008>012-014-015-044>055-061130-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-TOOLE-
LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-
GALLATIN-
600 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH DARK. PLEASE REFER TO GTFSPSTFX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN FALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH SOILS ACROSS THIS REGION NEARLY
SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CREATE RAPID RUNOFF AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SOME SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS COULD RISE
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE BANKFUL AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ013-061130-
CHOUTEAU-
600 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON FOR ALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS IN CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH DARK. PLEASE REFER TO GTFSPSTFX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN FALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH SOILS ACROSS THIS REGION NEARLY
SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CREATE RAPID RUNOFF AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SOME SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS COULD RISE
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE BANKFUL AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.