Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, June 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ZONES.  SEVERE WEATHER A GOOD POSSIBILITY
THIS EVENING.  LOTS OF CAPE...MORE THAN 2000 J/KG AND NO CAP.  A
DECENT WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM ILLINOIS.  THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING
PERPENDICULAR TO THIS WIND FIELDS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE
HEADING IN OUR DIRECTION.  THIS WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE REGION.  THIS FRONT THEN RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...
OUR PREVIOUS EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE SO VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION WAS NECESSARY. AGREE WITH MID
SHIFT FORECASTER THAT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEFINITELY TRENDING
WARMER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CORRESPONDINGLY WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND SFC HEATING AND WITH A BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS
THE AREA WE AGREE WITH THE MENTION OF A CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
DAILY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 800 PM EDT
ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
100 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-061000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
100 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS CONTINUED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWARD
TO IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
WISCONSIN BY EVENING. WARM...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. A
DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF ILLINOIS COULD ENHANCE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS THIS LOOKS TO BE STRONG DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN
ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. FINALLY...ROTATION
MAY OCCUR IS STORMS...SO TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.

THE SEVERITY OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL HINGE UPON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS...AS WELL
AS WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. LATER OUTLOOKS
WILL BETTER DETAIL THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION AND SEVERITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
THROUGH THE AREA...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IF YOU
ARE A SPOTTER AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH YOUR LOCATION...PLEASE SEND IN
REPORTS THROUGH THE 800 PHONE NUMBER...OR THE ESPOTTER WEBPAGE.

DUKE MJS