Damaging Wind in Missouri, September 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
455 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE NEAR 2000 J/KG.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED. INCREASING DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR APPROACHING 45 KTS WAS ALLOWING THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE
WITH SOME CELLS BECOMING SUPERCELLUAR IN NATURE. 0-3 HELICITIES WERE
NEAR 150 WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 15 TO 20 DEGREES. HOWEVER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR A SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WERE LOWER.
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PERFECT...AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CHANGE IN THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
AREA THE PAST FEW WEEKS WAS UNDERWAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN IOWA THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO TRAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE AROUND 1500 J/KG PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.

THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAKS INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT AND BECOME WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
UNDERNEATH AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...FRONTAL SCALE FORCING...AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR...A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...AND
INCREASING LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLED JET SUGGEST CONVECTION
MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL MAINLY OCCUR EARLY THIS
EVENING AT THE HEIGHT OF INSTABILITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 14 DEGREES C COMBINED
WITH AMPLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUGGEST LOCALLY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN WHERE TRAINING
CELLS DEVELOP.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOME QUESTION TO THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER THESE SYSTEMS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN PERCENTAGES WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF LATER THURSDAY AS THE LAST IN THE SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME QUESTION ABOUT POSSIBLE
RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. IT APPEARS WARM
AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST IF
IT DEVELOPS AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TAF CYCLE IS WITH TS CHANCES
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
KANSAS NOW WILL LIKELY DISRUPT DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD HAMPER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TONIGHT TO KEEP PREVAILING/TEMPO THUNDER
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AMEND TAFS PRIOR TO 00Z IF TS
CHANCES/TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. CIGS/VIS WILL LIKELY FALL
TO MVFR IF NOT LOWER DURING THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IZZI

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING:
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
    WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
    VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
    AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44
  THROUGH 7 PM. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
  OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SLOWLY
  EAST OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
  MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
  THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
  INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT. A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
  WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
  DURING THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
  MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO SALEM THROUGH 10 PM.
  THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT.

  LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS
  MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED TWO INCHES IN A SHORT
  PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
  ROUNDS OF STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
  THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING
  ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
410 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     TUSCUMBIA               38.23N 92.47W
09/13/2005  65 MPH           MILLER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES.

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
431 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRINKTOWN               38.13N 92.08W
09/13/2005                   MARIES             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
441 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             5 NE GIRARD             37.55N 94.79W
09/13/2005  1.75 INCH        CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
451 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             COLLINS                 37.88N 93.63W
09/13/2005  1.00 INCH        ST.CLAIR           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TORNADO          ARMA                    37.53N 94.70W
09/13/2005                   CRAWFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            INTERMITENT TOUCHDOWNS FROM 4 N OF GIRARD TO 2 NW OF
            ARMA. PRELIMINARY REPORTS.

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
516 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             4 W PITTSBURG           37.83N 93.37W
09/13/2005  1.00 INCH        HICKORY            MO   PUBLIC

FEH