Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, September 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT:
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH WEAK MESOLOW
OVER MCPHERSON COUNTY WITH A TRAILING WEAK SURFACE TROF AXIS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EAST WICHITA TO NEAR PONCA CITY. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND THE FLINT HILLS. THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH HUTCHINSON INTO FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROF,
CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3,000 TO 4,000 J/KG - SO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, MOSTLY RESULTING FROM SPEED SHEAR, IS ON
THE ORDER OF 35-45 KTS INTO THIS EVENING. LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN WEAK CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER,
A 105 KT UPPER SPEED MAX IS NOSING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
SOUTHERN KS WITH A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER EASTERN KS INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS EXPECTED
ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ANY STORM TRAVELING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BY
12Z WEDNESDAY, COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM EXTREME NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY NAM,
SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS LATE
TONIGHT, SO ALSO CARRYING LOW POPS WELL NORTH OF FRONT IN CENTRAL KS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
850 FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN KS WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS,
PRECIPITATION, AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN IN LOWER 70S,
SO IT SHOULD FEEL MUCH COOLER. NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
LIFT OUT ACROSS KS/OK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS
SHOW COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SO WOULD EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL JUST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST KS. THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH LATER MODEL RUNS, SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. NEVETHELESS, HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KS LOOK WARRANTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
KANSAS REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL IS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT PER 12Z GFS. THEREFORE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF HAVE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
STALLING IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA. THESE
MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW THE
FRONT TO TEMPORARILY LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE FRONT
COMES BACK DOWN INTO OUR AREA PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS. THERMAL PATTERN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT, AND WILL THEN MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-TUESDAY.

CARUSO

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  73  60  81 /  40  60  40  20
HUTCHINSON      59  72  59  81 /  30  40  30  10
NEWTON          62  72  59  81 /  40  40  30  20
ELDORADO        62  72  60  81 /  40  50  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  73  61  81 /  70  60  50  30
RUSSELL         54  73  55  81 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      55  72  57  81 /  30  30  20  10
SALINA          58  73  57  81 /  20  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       58  73  58  81 /  30  30  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  76  62  81 /  80  60  70  50
CHANUTE         63  76  60  80 /  70  60  60  30
IOLA            63  75  59  80 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-141200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
529 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. EVEN THOUGH THE CHANCE IS
REMOTE, A TORNADO OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF A STORM
CAN ANCHOR ITSELF ON THE COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.
EVEN THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK, ONE CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS. IN
ADDITION, ANY STORM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT MAY BRING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY OUT TO SPECULATE ON THE
SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

KSZ052>053-068>072-082>083-091>096-098>100-140300-
ALLEN KS-BUTLER KS-CHASE KS-CHAUTAUQUA KS-COWLEY KS-
ELK KS-GREENWOOD KS-HARPER KS-HARVEY KS-KINGMAN KS-
LABETTE KS-MARION KS-MONTGOMERY KS-NEOSHO KS-
SEDGWICK KS-SUMNER KS-WILSON KS-WOODSON KS-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
784 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL KANSAS

CHASE                 MARION

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

BUTLER                COWLEY                HARPER
HARVEY                KINGMAN               SEDGWICK
SUMNER

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

ALLEN                 CHAUTAUQUA            ELK
GREENWOOD             LABETTE               MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO                WILSON                WOODSON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANTHONY...ARKANSAS CITY...AUGUSTA...
CHANUTE...COFFEYVILLE...COTTONWOOD FALLS...EL DORADO...EUREKA...
FREDONIA...HARPER...HILLSBORO...HOWARD...INDEPENDENCE...IOLA...
KINGMAN...MARION...NEWTON...PARSONS...SEDAN...WELLINGTON...
WICHITA...WINFIELD AND YATES CENTER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

KSZ096-132100-
NEOSHO-
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEOSHO COUNTY...

AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THAYER...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF CHANUTE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

BOWMAN