Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWING COLD FRONT
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FROM HOLTON TO
HERINGTON. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH SHEAR PARAMETERS AND CAPES GENERALLY IN THE 2500 TO
3000 RANGE...CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE SOUTH
OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 PM. WILL GO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE THROUGH
THE EVENING THIS AREA...THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WARRANTS
A DRY FCST BACK IN NORTHCENTRAL WHERE LOWS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN
THE MIDDLE 50S. WILL TRIM THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CWA FROM LOW
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SINKS SOUTHWARD.

AS FRONT SLOWS AND EVENTUALLY STALLS ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND ALLOW LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO VEER AROUND AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. WITH THE
CLOUDS...PRECIP POTENTIAL AND EAST WINDS...WILL LOWER HIGHS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S MOST AREAS.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE 305 SFC
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN DIMINISHES BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS UPPER WAVE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY 12Z THURS.
EXPECT SCT/ISOLD PRECIP TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FRONT LINGERING ACROSS OK. MIGHT
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT HAVE KEPT A
DRY WORDED FORECAST BEYOND 12Z THURS SINCE LAST IN RECENT SERIES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES BRINGS DRIER AIR IN BEHIND AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A COOL NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS SFC HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER TX.

SAT...LEFT ISOLD POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR PERSISTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON SAT. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO WARM TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND. MIGHT GET AN ISOLATED SHOWER THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO WORDING YET.

LATE SUN THROUGH TUES...CURRENT RUNS HAVE ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. ASSOCIATED LOW
AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO HANG UP NEAR THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A POP TO MONDAY AS
THIS FEATURE HAS SHOWN UP FOR A FEW RUNS NOW AS WELL AS TO MATCH
OTHERS. 120KT JET DROPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL US ON TUES AND USHERS
IN FRONT LATE DAY...AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
NOW A WARM AND DRY DAY 7.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
407 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-142115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
407 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR
DOUGLAS...OSAGE...LYON...FRANKLIN...ANDERSON...AND COFFEY COUNTIES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A HIAWATHA TO ABILENE LINE...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LAWRENCE TO COUNCIL GROVE
LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
302 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

KSZ040-054>056-058>059-140300-
ANDERSON-COFFEY-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-LYON-OSAGE-
302 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
784 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS

ANDERSON... COFFEY... DOUGLAS...
FRANKLIN... LYON... OSAGE...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...EMPORIA...LAWRENCE AND OTTAWA.