Hail and Damaging Wind in Missouri, November 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1024 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

.UPDATE...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...

LATE UPDATE TONIGHT DUE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COORDINATION.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING TOWARDS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS CURRENTLY. THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD IS BACKED ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO POSE AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A TORNADO IN ANY SUPERCELLS THAT ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LINE. ALTHOUGH...THIS THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ALSO A LOWER
THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS THERE WILL BE
SOME QUESTION TO THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER THESE
AREAS AS PRIMARY FOCUS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA THOUGH
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALREADY SENT. STAY ABREAST OF ANY
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS ISSUED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061145-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
345 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM FORREST CITY ARKANSAS...TO MEMPHIS...TO HUNTINGDON TENNESSEE.
THIS INCLUDES MEMPHIS...JACKSON...JONESBORO...BLYTHEVILLE AND
DYERSBURG.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE TIME OF GREATEST THREAT IS BETWEEN 9 PM
TONIGHT AND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     TSTM WND GST     RECTOR                  36.26N 90.29W
11/06/2005  75 MPH           CLAY               AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT AIRPORT

&&

DSV